Wisconsin still not past Bud Elliott’s vaunted Blue-Chip Ratio threshold for 2024

History shows that the #Badgers will not be making a run this year

Wisconsin football does not have a chance to win the national championship in 2024. At least that’s what history says, as the Badgers are not past the vaunted 50% Blue-Chip Ratio.

CBS Sports’ Bud Elliott began this look at title contenders through the lens of recruiting success back in 2013. The Blue-Chip Ratio specifically is the percentage of players on a roster who were four or five-star recruits. If that number is more than half, or more than 50%, then the team qualifies.

Related: Big Ten Football Power Index Rankings for 2024: Which teams are underrated, overrated?

There has never been a team to win the national championship with a BCR of less than the 50% threshold. Several have come close, but none have won the title game.

So according to that history, the 16 teams that can realistically win the national title in 2024 are Ohio State (90% BCR), Alabama (88%), Georgia (80%), Texas A&M (79%), Oregon (76%), Oklahoma (73%), Texas (72%), LSU (70%), Notre Dame (67%), Clemson (64%), Florida (63%), Miami (61%), Penn State (61%), USC (59%), Michigan (56%) and Auburn (53%).

For reference, Wisconsin finished the class of 2024 recruiting cycle with the program’s first-ever Blue-Chip Ratio of 50% (11 four-star players of 22 total commitments). The 2025 class is back down to 25% (5/20) — which is still a high mark compared to where the program was recruiting a decade ago.

Wisconsin is at least 3-4 record-breaking high school and transfer portal recruiting cycles away from getting the roster close to the 50% threshold. Until then, it’s hard seeing the program hit its ceiling (which is, according to DC Mike Tressel, is winning national championships).

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