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The No. 22 Wisconsin Badgers (8-2, 0-1 Big Ten) face the Illinois Fighting Illini (6-2, 0-1) Tuesday. Tip-off from State Farm Center in Champaign is set for 9 p.m. ET (Peacock). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Wisconsin vs. Illinois odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Badgers dropped their second straight game, falling to the No. 4 Marquette Golden Eagles 88-74. They couldn’t cover as 6.5-point road underdogs, and the Over (149.5) cashed. The Golden Eagles dominated inside, outscoring Wisconsin 44-28 in the paint. Despite the loss, G Max Klesmit put up a strong effort, leading the Badgers with 22 points.
Illinois dropped a tough one in its Big Ten opener Friday, losing at the Northwestern Wildcats 70-66 in overtime. The Illini came up short as 3-point road favorites and the Under (142) hit. Freshman G Kasparas Jakucionis was outstanding with 20 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists, a steal and a block. But 11 team turnovers proved too much to overcome in the end.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll
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Wisconsin at Illinois odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college basketball odds. Lines last updated at 12:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Wisconsin +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Illinois -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Wisconsin +6.5 (-110) | Illinois -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 154.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Wisconsin at Illinois picks and predictions
Prediction
Illinois 80, Wisconsin 70
Moneyline
PASS.
Illinois (-275) will win, but it won’t come easy. Expect the Fighting Illini to pull away in the second half and cover the spread. Instead of risking 2.75 units to profit just 1 on the moneyline, I’ll stick with betting on the spread for better value.
Against the spread
BET ILLINOIS -6.5 (-110).
At first glance, Illinois laying 6.5 points might seem high, but the numbers support the Illini. Both teams are coming off tough losses, with Wisconsin failing to cover in 3 straight games and in 4 of its last 6.
The Illini are 5-0 at home so far this season and have covered 3 of their last 4 games overall. They average an impressive 89.4 points per game (PPG) in Champaign, winning there by an average of 38.8 points.
The Illini have dominated this head-to-head series, beating and covering against Wisconsin in 8 straight matchups dating back to January 2020. While the Badgers are shooting 34.7 percent from deep, the Illini defense, which allows just 62.5 PPG and holds opponents to 25.1 percent from 3, will make things tough.
Look for the ILLINI -6.5 (-110) to bounce back strong with a decisive win Tuesday at home.
Over/Under
PASS.
This is a classic offense-vs.-defense showdown, making the total tough to call.
Illinois boasts a high-powered offense, averaging 86.3 PPG (17th nationally per NCAA.com), and a stifling defense, holding opponents to 62.5 PPG (21st). Wisconsin averages 82.0 PPG (59th) and yields 70.9 PPG (174th).
Wisconsin trends toward Overs, cashing in 8 of its 10 games, while Illinois has hit the Under in 6 of its last 8.
I’d lean toward the Under given the grind-it-out style of Big Ten matchups, but I don’t feel confident enough to lock it in.
Focusing on the spread seems like the best play in this one.
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