Welcome to the Winner’s Circle, a weekly column by Bet For The Win senior writer Prince J. Grimes. Here, you’ll read about stats and trends that can help you make informed betting predictions for the week ahead and beyond. Got something you want to see in the next Winners Circle, shoot Prince a message and check back next week for the response.
I’m sold. The NBA Play-in Tournament should be here to stay.
I wasn’t much of a fan when it was first introduced a couple years ago because frankly it’s a little silly to give the Nos. 9 and 10 teams in each conference a shot at making the playoffs. But upon further review, there isn’t much difference between them and the No. 7 and 8 teams. In most years, 7 and 8 don’t give us any excitement as they make the playoffs simply to get swept in the first round. They barely even earn their spots in the playoffs, often finishing under .500 and only outlasting the teams under them. At least with the play-in tournament, they can play some meaningful basketball and give us something worth watching…and betting on. Playoff futures provided value all the way to the end thanks to the play-in.
And there’s another component to this that I hadn’t considered until this year. The play-in serves as a catch-all for teams that were incomplete throughout the season due to injuries or other circumstances, a place where we get to sort out who’s putting it all together at the right time. The Cleveland Cavaliers were great all year but banged up towards the end, which is why they slid into the play-in group. As fun as they were to watch, nobody wanted to see an incomplete Cavs team in the playoffs. And the Nets were in the play-in because they were incomplete a lot of the year but got healthy at the right time. They were able to prove their playoff worth to create one of the most exciting No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchups ever. Through the play-in tournament, these things were sorted out.
The same thing likely would have happened in the West with the Clippers, who had been incomplete all year. They got Paul George back just in time for the play-in and seemed on track to make a playoff push until he was ruled out of the second game due to COVID-19. They lost to the Pelicans, who were a more complete team for one game, but would the Clippers have beaten New Orleans with Paul George and given the Suns a better series? Maybe. These are the things the play-in tournament sorts out. The stakes are higher, which makes the basketball better. Everybody wins.
Here are a few more things I’m looking at in the week ahead.
[tipico]