Now that the Big Ten has become the first Power Five conference to postpone college football and not play in the fall of 2020, everyone in the college sports community will begin to sift through the wreckage and assess the damage.
One of the more interesting and provocative questions which is being asked — and will continue to be asked — across the country is this one: Is the Big Ten going to suffer enormous long-term damage as a result of being the first conference to shut down fall football?
Hmmmm.
As I keep saying, it is good to admit one doesn’t know the answer to a question if — in fact — one doesn’t have a good or well-formed understanding of the subject.
So, I can’t tell you I know what the answer is going to be. I have my own leanings or inclinations, but not knowledge. I lack certainty on this.
Let’s wrestle with this question: Has the Big Ten truly undercut its national image and done something which will linger with the conference for a very long time?
As with so many other aspects of the coronavirus, this debate will be fierce and contentious. It won’t lead to easy and unanimous agreement. In the short run, there won’t be a broad national consensus on this point. We will have to wait to see how this all shakes out, specifically in relationship to the other Power Five conferences.
The Pac-12 might soon pull the plug on fall football, but it seems the ACC and SEC are digging in and waiting as long as possible.
Let’s throw some scenarios onto the table:
What if the ACC and SEC play football while no other conferences play?
What if the ACC and SEC abruptly turn from their current paths and shut things down later this week, due to the Big Ten and Pac-12 leaving them with very little recourse?
What if the ACC and SEC get into late September or early October, still trying to play, but then decide they can’t?
These are the great unknowns in front of us; we have to let them play out.
However:
Let’s say that the ACC and SEC do manage to play football this fall, even if no one else is. That’s the really interesting hypothetical here. Would ACC and SEC schools become even more desirable to football recruits? Almost certainly, yes. That’s not the hard question to answer in all of this.
The REAL question is: Would SEC and ACC programs become so much more desirable that Ohio State and Penn State would take a significant hit?
That’s the real question which might undercut the Big Ten’s football prominence. (I can’t really include Michigan in the same breath because the Wolverines are so obviously a few notches below the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions. Wisconsin is its own unique case study; the Badgers are able to recruit within their own footprint and maintain themselves with a different strategy.)
Will the Big Ten suffer long-term effects from its decision?
I don’t know… but it’s a question worth thinking about in the coming months.