The best team in the NFL at converting fourth downs is the Baltimore Ravens at 76.9%.
The Houston Texans are tied for second-best at 70.0%, and they face the Ravens Sunday at 12:00 p.m. CT at M&T Bank Stadium.
Houston coach Bill O’Brien broke down for the media Friday what considerations go into going for it on fourth down.
“What are you anticipating from them when you put your personnel out there? What do you think they’re going to do? What is the distance? Where is the ball on the field? How is the weather, if it’s an outdoor game, quite obviously. Do you want to punt it? Do you want to kick a field goal, relative to where you are on the field? How good do you feel about the play that you would run? I mean, I could stand up here all day,” O’Brien said.
In an age where there are analytics galore, O’Brien believes the key is to use the analytics within the context of how the game is playing out that week.
“I think you use the analytics as a guide and you try to do the best you can to make the best decision for the team, but at the end of the day, you have to go with how the game’s being played, what you anticipate, from a preparation standpoint, what it might be,” said O’Brien.
One notable fourth down call was in Kansas City in Week 6. Facing a fourth-and-3 from the Chiefs’ 27-yard line and 2:00 left in the game, the Texans needed to pick up a first down to secure their 31-24 victory. A turnover on downs would give quarterback Patrick Mahomes and their quick strike offense a chance to send it to overtime. Rather than kick the field goal, O’Brien went for it, and Watson executed with an 8-yard pass to receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
“We went with a decision that it was fourth-and-3 and we said, ‘We have a good play. This is what I believe that they’ll do,'” O’Brien explained. “We’ve executed it in practice against what we think they’re going to do. So, we went ahead and did it.
“It was successful, but at the end of the day you try to do the best you can to make the best decision with all those factors weighed in.”
O’Brien and the coaching staff will have to make their best decisions against the Ravens as they seek to match last year’s 7-3 start.