Will Lu Dort’s defense force Billy Donovan to change closing lineup?

Lu Dort has been excellent against James Harden. Will the Oklahoma City Thunder have to leave him in late against the Houston Rockets?

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s closing lineup is the best in the league.

During the regular season, the Thunder were 30-15 in games that had a differential of five points or less in the final five minutes. Net ratings were absurdly high. The three-guard combo alongside the sharpshooting Danilo Gallinari and post presence of Steven Adams dominated.

Coming into the Houston Rockets series, that looked to be a strength for the team.

Now, with the success Lu Dort has had defending star James Harden, will head coach Billy Donovan have to adjust and get Dort into the end-of-game situations?

On Saturday, there was some offense-defense substitutions. Here are the lineup changes late that involved Dort:

  • 3:36: Chris Paul enters for Dort trailing 92-93. This sets up usual closing lineup.
  • 2:11: Dort enters for Gallinari trailing 97-94. In Game Two, Donovan did this same switch with 1:43 to go, but the Thunder were down eight.
  • 1:28: Gallinari enters for Dort down 99-94. Oklahoma City needed offense.
  • 24.4 seconds: Dort enters for Gallinari for a defensive possession trailing 103-101.
  • 24.4 seconds: Adams hurt his knee diving for a ball that was going out of bounds, and Gallinari enters without any time being taken off the clock.

This lineup of Paul, Dennis Schroder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort and Gallinari was in complete command of overtime, though some of that was due to Harden fouling out a minute into the period.

Oklahoma City was unsure of Adams’ status on Sunday afternoon, but if he is available for Game Four, there will be six players the Thunder would like to play in crunch time.

When Donovan was asked if he would consider continuing to play small with Gallinari at the 5, the coach was noncommital.

“It’s really hard to say. That group did a good job … Chris made two tough 3s, which was great, I don’t know if that had anything to do with the lineup. Lu Dort got a couple of offensive rebounds and then a three-point play, I don’t know if that had anything to do with the lineup,” Donovan said.

“Harden was off the floor for them, Steven was off the floor for us, so it’s really hard to say in that five minutes what to like or not like, it was just going well for that group out there at that point in time.

But can the Thunder afford not to have Dort in? Owen Phillips, an NBA stats and graphs guru, tweeted a chart showing just how good Dort has been defending Harden.

Dennis Schroder is the next option, but he’s been no match for Harden these last couple games, let alone the season: Harden’s shooting percentage against Schroder is fifth-highest among the 26 players on Phillips’ chart.

Terrance Ferguson, who is the other Thunder player on the chart, has not seen action in the last two games.

Dort moves laterally extremely well. He keeps his arms out, up, and even behind his back at times to not only avoid fouling Harden, but to avoid giving the impression that there’s a foul.

He fights around screens well and uses his strength to body up Harden on occasion.

“Lu is trying to guard arguably one of the best offensive players to ever play the game,” said Thunder point guard Chris Paul. “James is that tough to defend – the stepbacks, the drives, the ability to get to the free throw line.”

Dort said Harden’s ball skill and speed makes it such a tough matchup.

“Just the way he dribbles the ball, he’s so quick. Sometimes you’ve gotta just anticipate what move he’s gonna do,” Dort said. “I feel like the hardest thing probably is just when he just stands and starts dribbling the ball and plays, like you never know what move he’s going to do, and where he’s going to go.

Yet there is reason for Donovan to have pause in altering the rotation.

First off, when a lineup has worked so well all season, it’s hard to change it. That chemistry won’t be replicated, and Dort is not an offensive weapon the way Gallinari or Adams are.

Additionally, while Dort is better against Harden than anyone else on the team, that height advantage with Adams — whose 3.0 offensive rebounds per game in the playoffs is among the top-seven in the league — goes away.

Finally, while Dort’s perimeter defense has been as good as anyone has guarded Harden, the star has gone to the post against Dort more often than he normally would. The Rockets are at their most dangerous when he’s drawing double-teams that leave his teammates open.

To best counter the Rockets’ spacing, though, Oklahoma City may need to space the floor more themselves and have Gallinari play the 5. When Harden manages to get Adams switched onto him defensively, he beat the center easily.

It’s a quandary to be sure, but Donovan must put consideration into having Dort join the closing group full-time through this series.

That’s not even to mention that the Thunder will soon have to figure out how to slow down Russell Westbrook. A change may be necessitated.

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