Will 2024 be a breakthrough year for Cowboys, or epic collapse?

Will 2024 be the season where the Dallas Cowboys finally breakthrough, or are they headed for a collapse after a disastrous offseason? | From @BenGrimaldi

Mike McCarthy’s Dallas Cowboys have won 12 games in three straight seasons, yet the team has just one playoff win and zero conference championship games to show for it. After ‘knocking on the door’ for two seasons in 2021 and 2022, McCarthy thought his 2023 group was ready to break the door down, but the Cowboys floundered yet again in the playoffs.

As the 2024 season rapidly approaches, will the Cowboys finally breakthrough and end a 28-year championship drought, or will they collapse after an uninspiring offseason?

The team could end up anywhere in-between these two outcomes, but the upcoming campaign has a heavy boom-or-bust feel at this point. With McCarthy and much of the coaching staff on one-year deals, it appears Jerry and Stephen Jones could be viewing it this way as well.

It’s wild to think about how a coach who’s had so much regular season success in the last three years can possibly be leading a team to the brink of faltering with much of the core of the team returning, but here things are. There are as many reasons to believe in these Cowboys, as there also are reasons to suspect disaster is coming.

Reasons to believe include Dallas’ high-end talent. The organization fielded eight All-Pro players last season and even though they lost one in left tackle Tyron Smith, they’ll also get one back in cornerback Trevon Diggs.

The Cowboys are led by quarterback Dak Prescott, who continues to get better under McCarthy. The duo has been money in their time together, leading the offense to top of the league status when Prescott’s been healthy, and their second year in the ‘Texas Coast Offense’ could yield even better results. That could mean something special considering how good he was in his first year in the system.

It helps that Prescott is surrounded by elite players on offense. CeeDee Lamb is arguably the best wide receiver in the league, and tight end Jake Ferguson, who was a revelation last year, should continue to ascend. The offensive line boasts two All-Pro guards in Tyler Smith and Zack Martin, to pair with yet another first-round pick in Tyler Guyton.

On defense, the Cowboys have a plethora of talent, led by pass rusher Micah Parsons. One of the best edge rushers and defensive players in the game, Parsons has led the Cowboys in sacks in each of his first three seasons and could thrive under new coordinator Mike Zimmer. Parsons was the biggest defensive disrupter in the league last season and Zimmer’s scheme is expected to move his best player around more than his predecessor did.

The defense also boasts one of the game’s best two-way defensive ends in DeMarcus Lawrence. As well, the pick-six king DaRon Bland and the return of Diggs gives Dallas one of the best CB tandems in the NFL. Few teams have that amount of talent on defense.

However, despite all the top-flight talent on the roster, the Cowboys could bottom out because they don’t have much depth. Thanks to a front office that stood by and watched free agency, the team didn’t sufficiently improve this offseason. The team lost much of their veteran depth and solid rotational pieces without adding much to replace their production. Linebacker Eric Kendricks was the only quality addition in free agency, with the team relying on the draft to patch their other holes.

The Cowboys have questions at running back after losing starter Tony Pollard, and not filling the void with a better option than RB Ezekiel Elliott. The team also took a chance on drafting Guyton in the first round, despite his inexperience and the work that needs to be done to refine his game. Guyton may thrive in the future, but he may need time to develop, perhaps not the best way to improve their offensive line in 2024.

It’s also a defensive line that lacks quality on the interior. Osa Odighizuwa is solid player, but the Cowboys are expecting DT Mazi Smith to make a big jump in Year 2. That task has been made more difficult due to shoulder surgery that has kept Smith out this offseason.

Management failures could foreshadow the Cowboys’ downfall as well. The front offices lack of movement on extensions for their key players could come back to bite them. The have been rumors about an uneasiness inside the Cowboys’ locker room and it’s tough to buy into a team with a lame duck coach, defensive coordinator and QB all on the last year of their contracts. Not having Prescott locked into a new contract at this point is as negligent as it can get from a front office.

Lamb and Parsons basically staying away all offseason sends a poor message about the harmony within the organization as well. This offseason has given the strongest impression yet that the Joneses don’t know what they’re doing when it comes to managing the salary cap or the roster.

The last six months has not been an ideal situation for the Cowboys, who appear to be on the brink of imploding.

Having elite players at the key five positions is a reason to believe the Cowboys can keep the double-digit winning seasons coming under McCarthy. When you have a good QB, you have a chance to win a lot of games, which is the main reason to buy into a breakthrough.

Yet the lack of depth and the vibe from a tumultuous offseason could signal a collapse. It’s hard to look at the Cowboys and feel good about where they’re at with training camp looming.

There’s time to get things moving in the right direction with Prescott and Lamb extensions, but as it stands right now, the Cowboys have the look of a team on the brink of crumbling. After not breaking through in the last three seasons, a 2024 collapse could feel even worse, and the Joneses will have no one to blame but themselves.

While most teams close to a breakthrough move forward, management in Dallas chose to pull back. That makes any marked improvement in 2024 unlikely, which could mean an implosion is coming for the Cowboys.

You can chat with or follow Ben on twitter @BenGrimaldi