Will 2024 mark the start of a Deshaun Watson redemption arc?

What are the odds of a Watson rebound in 2024?

In March of 2022, the Cleveland Browns sent first-round picks in 2022, 2023, and 2024, as well as a third-rounder in 2023, plus fourth-rounders in ’22 and 2024, to the Houston Texans in exchange for quarterback Deshaun Watson and a ’24 sixth-round pick. After two seasons, this checks in as one of the worst trades in NFL history from Cleveland’s perspective. Will things finally get better in 2024? Let’s take an early peek.

During his two years in a Browns uniform, Watson has appeared in 12 games. He served an 11-game suspension in 2022, and he missed 11 games last year due to a shoulder injury that required surgery to correct. He has been a limited participant in offseason workouts, but the expectation is he will be ready to go in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys.

Cleveland has made some notable changes since the last time Watson took the field. Perhaps the biggest one is the hiring of new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who worked with Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen during his tenure as the OC. Dorsey was named the quarterbacks coach when Allen was in his second season, and he helped shepherd his ascent to stardom before eventually taking over as the play caller in 2022.

On the field, the Browns acquired wide receiver Jerry Jeudy from the Denver Broncos, ironically parting ways with the sixth-round selection they picked up from Houston in the Watson deal (along with a fifth-round choice). That gives Cleveland a top three of Jeudy (54-758-2 last year), Amari Cooper (72-1,250-5), and Elijah Moore (59-640-2) at receiver to go along with tight end David Njoku (81-882-6), who finally took a major step statistically last year.

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Health and contract issues could play a part in how effective Cleveland is offensively in 2024. In addition to Watson, who still isn’t throwing every day as he works his way back from shoulder surgery, running back Nick Chubb (knee) faces an uncertain future after suffering a gruesome knee injury last year. On the money side, Cooper didn’t take part in the offseason program as he enters the final year of his contract.

All those changes should lead to a more aggressive, pass-oriented offense under Dorsey, which could breathe some life into Watson, who last posted a meaningful statistical season back in 2020 — he threw for 4,823 yards, 33 TDs, and seven INTs while rushing for 444 yards and three TDs.

Fantasy football outlook

The numbers that Watson put up in 2020 bordered on elite, and it shows what he is capable of … or at least what he was capable of. Three full seasons have passed since then, during which he’s played in a dozen games with 2,217 yards passing, 14 TDs, and nine INTs.

At this stage, the veteran needs to be viewed as a borderline top-20 quarterback on draft day, though his dual-threat potential makes him one of the more intriguing backup options.