For some college quarterbacks, the transition to the NFL can be a severe reality check. Even though professional offensive coordinators have done all kinds of things to adapt things for the comfort of incoming quarterbacks coming from spread and especially Air Raid offenses — there is no better example than what Andy Reid has done for Patrick Mahomes — there are other quarterbacks who, when robbed of the benefits of a wider field and the ability to stretch defenses beyond their logical breaking points, suffer the differences in the NFL to career-ending degrees.
In the case of Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker and the explosive potential he showed in Josh Heupel’s Air Raid offense, there are a lot of questions about his NFL viability beyond the fact that he’s recovering from the torn ACL he suffered last November, or the fact that he’s 25 years old. It’s a question that’s been around ever since quarterbacks tried to transition from the Air Raid “easy button” to the more complicated structures of the NFL, and right now, Hooker, who completed 229 of 329 passes for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns, and two interceptions in 2022, is the one in the crucible.
Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup told me at the scouting combine that while he appreciates what Hooker brings to the NFL based on his tape, there are legitimate concerns about the transition.
“It’s more of a true Air Raid offense than most teams run in college football,” Cosell told me of Tennessee’s offense. “The splits are exceedingly wide, and because the wide side of the field is wider in college football than on an NFL field, it’s really a factor. So, what you rarely get is receivers pressed. They get free access off the ball. Jalin Hyatt can explode off the ball, and he had very good hands to catch the ball, often on the move. Just by its very nature, there’s not a lot of throws to the middle of the field. I happen to like Hooker’s skill set quite a bit, and his skill set is clearly translate able to the NFL, but he’s probably going to be one of those quarterbacks that, when he gets to the NFL, it’ll look like there’s 15 defenders on defense. Especially on those throws with timing and anticipation over the middle of the field.
“I’m not saying he can’t make those throws — that’s not the point. The game is played more in the middle of the field in the NFL, and those throws are more part and parcel. There’s a learning curve to those kinds of throws by NFL standards. Again, we’re not saying he can’t make those throws; just that he hasn’t done a lot of them. And even the anticipatory throws he made were more open-type anticipatory throws than the stick-type tight-window throws.”
I share Greg’s concerns overall regarding the transferability of the Volunteers’ offense, but I’m also of a mind that Hooker is coming into an NFL that, again, has learned to be far more hospitable to those quarterbacks benefiting from those types of offenses. With that in mind, let’s look for examples of Hooker making the types of throws he’ll have to make in the NFL, no matter how friendly his new offense is to his current palette.