To quote Ron Burgundy in Anchorman: Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean, that really got out of hand, fast.
Sunday’s race in Qatar was entertaining enough in isolation, but as soon as the drivers jumped out of their cars, multiple storylines started to crop up that had little to do with the previous two hours.
One related to Max Verstappen and his loss of respect for George Russell – a rivalry that I think could be great to watch next season if Mercedes has a competitive enough car – and the other was the situation surrounding Esteban Ocon at Alpine.
It transpired that Ocon had been given an ultimatum before the race. If he wanted to drive for Haas in the post-season test in Abu Dhabi, he would have to step aside for Jack Doohan to race in his place in the final round. Bits of information started to emerge soon after the checkered flag, and by Monday morning Alpine had confirmed the news.
And it wasn’t just a case of a switch, it was the early termination of Ocon’s contract, cutting all ties and effectively leaving him free to join Haas immediately.
It’s a complex picture, and one that could still have some knock-on impacts.
If a relationship appears it has run its course, and there are already agreed plans in place for all parties for next season, then bringing that next phase forward to the end of this year isn’t crazy. What’s unique with the Alpine situation is the fact that it might actually change next season’s plans, too.
Giving Doohan his debut at the Yas Marina Circuit makes a lot of sense. He’s raced and won there in Formula 2 – and excelled earlier in his career on the track – plus it has been a venue that has been used for some of his testing of previous cars (TPC) running. It’s a place where he has every chance of being able to hit the ground running.
But he’ll need to, because Alpine has a lot on the line. Sixth place in the constructors’ championship is within its grasp, yet Haas has been extremely consistent and competitive, so it still faces serious opposition. Against that backdrop, ditching a race-winner who delivered a second place only three races ago – the only Alpine driver to ever finish in either position – makes little sense.
It could be argued that the change is due to poor form, but sources close to the situation suggest that form is more car than driver. And it’s hard to argue against given just how competitive Ocon has been throughout his F1 career so far, and even this season he had outqualified Gasly 10-4 prior to the summer break.
Since then, only once in the dry – in Singapore – has Ocon outqualified his teammate. The other occasion was the wet weather session in Brazil, in conditions where any car differences are reduced. And Ocon was an excellent fourth that day.
Many of the defeats in qualifying have been by significant margins that don’t tally with Ocon’s career to date. That raised a conspiracy theory that he didn’t want to beat Haas to sixth in the constructors’ championship when he is joining Ayao Komatsu’s team next season, but that overlooks a crucial detail.
Prior to Ocon’s second place in Brazil, Alpine was not in the fight for sixth. And this downturn had occurred much earlier than that. Then, when conditions leveled the playing field, he was extremely competitive and scored huge points that suddenly made Alpine a P6 contender.
To throw out a conspiracy theory in the other direction, it might not look so great if the driver that is leaving – Ocon – continued that pre-summer qualifying form over the driver who was staying. But to say that definitely would have happened does Gasly a disservice, too, as his performances have still been excellent and he was picking up points even prior to the car’s improvement. And there is always likely to be an aspect of a driver being phased out before a move elsewhere.
A number of teams, including Ferrari with Carlos Sainz’s move to Williams, and Haas with Nico Hulkenberg heading to Sauber, are allowing their drivers to take part in the Abu Dhabi test for their new teams. Haas expected the same to happen with Ocon, and have wanted to announce it for a long time, but have not been able to.
By refusing to confirm Ocon would be released to drive for Haas, Alpine has had a card to play to get the Frenchman to follow orders. Be that during a race weekend or in the wider picture of the Abu Dhabi situation, it was a bargaining chip.
So why would Alpine play such games with one of its drivers? That’s where the complex Doohan situation comes in.
The Australian was confirmed as Ocon’s replacement after the summer break, at which time Carlos Sainz had already committed to Williams. There didn’t seem to be more experienced options, and Doohan had shown he had the speed required to be a success.
But the same weekend that Doohan was confirmed – in Zandvoort – Logan Sargeant crashed heavily and Williams moved to replace him with Franco Colapinto. Now, there’s a driver who has shown hugely impressive potential and who also could unlock a major market in South America when it comes to both sponsors and also car sales. Alpine is the Renault-owned team, don’t forget.
Taking any human element out of it, there’s clearly a decision to be made. Go back on your previous announcement and sign an exciting driver with potential and huge backing, or stick with your earlier decision and hope to provide an opportunity to another young talent that came through your young driver program?
Getting a look at Doohan at a track where they already have a reference will give Alpine a steer on his potential, and if it sticks with the 21-year-old then it will also get plenty to data to work with during the off-season to help him prepare. But if Doohan struggles, or a Colapinto deal becomes too good to turn down, or both, then change could still be afoot.
Colapinto’s recent spate of crashes appears to have cooled interest from both Red Bull and Alpine a little, but he remains an option. How things play out on track in Abu Dhabi could well still have a major impact on a 2025 driver market that we thought was all but settled.
Given that Ocon should have been enjoying a farewell weekend from a team he has raced for over the past five seasons, cutting all ties with him was hardly a classy move. And the fact that Doohan could already be driving for his future is similarly brutal for a talented rookie who deserves time to give the best account of himself.
But Ocon was leaving regardless, and Alpine believes it could have a tough call on its hands. As cold as it might seem, giving itself as much data as possible can’t be described as the wrong thing. Only hindsight will show whether it was justified.