Why the Rockets need Eric Gordon to unlock shots for James Harden

With James Harden limited to just 16 shot attempts in back-to-back Rockets losses, here’s how the eventual return of Eric Gordon could help.

Rockets GM Daryl Morey seems to be pointing at the eventual return of guard Eric Gordon as a critical development to help loosen opposing defenses for Houston superstar James Harden. There’s ample reason to believe in that relationship, too.

Morey, who is currently in Europe on a scouting trip, posted a nighttime image of an illuminated room with the caption: “Opposing coaches coming up with ways to stop [Harden] once [Gordon] comes back.”

Gordon recently had surgery on his right knee, and he’s expected to return in late December. The knee problem likely contributed to Gordon’s much worse than expected start to the 2019-20 season — with shooting figures of 30.9% overall and 28.4% on three-pointers. Both figures are well below the percentages of 41.4% and 36.4% from his first three seasons in Houston, and his average of 10.9 points per game is the lowest of any season in his 12-year career.

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The Rockets (11-5) have largely had a successful start to the new season, even with Gordon struggling or out injured. However, they’ve lost two straight games versus the Nuggets and Clippers this week in which the leading theme was an inability to get Harden enough shot attempts.

Through 16 games, Harden is currently scoring 38.3 points per game on remarkable efficiency, with a career-high 62.7% true shooting clip. It’s the best per-game total for any NBA player in the last 56 seasons.

Yet, in large part due to that dominance, opposing teams are coming up with new and almost unprecedented ways to combat Harden with numerous traps and double-teams to force the ball out of the his hands early and force any other Rockets player to beat them.

Nuggets coach Michael Malone compared it to defending Michael Jordan, viewed by many as the greatest player in basketball history. “Back in the day, they had the Jordan Rules,” Malone said Wednesday. “You have to have rules against James Harden. It’s the same caliber of player.”

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In Wednesday’s game against the Nuggets and Friday’s game against the Clippers, Harden was extremely efficient with combined averages of 32.0 points, 9.5 assists, and 7.5 rebounds per game on 53.1% overall shooting and 47.4% on three-pointers.

However, the raw scoring output was still more than six points below his season-long average, largely due to Harden only being able to get off 16 shots in each game. After the game, the former Most Valuable Player (MVP) said the level of defensive attention was almost unprecedented.

The primary issue appears to be that not enough of Harden’s perimeter teammates command respect from opposing defenders. For example, Russell Westbrook and Ben McLemore — with the latter starting due to absences by Gordon and Danuel House Jr. (sore shoulder) — are connecting on just 22.0% and 31.5% from three-point range, respectively. Reserve guard Austin Rivers is shooting just 30.3% on three-pointers, including a woeful 17.6% over his last seven games.

On Friday’s final possession in Los Angeles with the Rockets trailing by one point in the closing seconds, the Clippers effectively dared Westbrook to beat them by sending his defender to trap Harden. Predictably, Westbrook bricked his open three-pointer, and the Rockets went on to lose the game.

P.J. Tucker does command respect with a 45.6% clip on three-pointers, but he’s just one player. Moreover, his inability to create offense off the dribble makes it easier for defenders to scramble back and recover against him.

That’s where Gordon, if healthy, could be so vital. Not only did Gordon shoot 40% from three-point range last postseason with the Rockets, but he also scored nearly 18 points per game because of his ability to both shoot and create.

It should be noted that the Nuggets and Clippers are both top 10 defenses. Most opponents on the regular-season schedule — even if they try similar schemes — won’t have the collective length or personnel to pull off what those teams did over the past two games. The looming return of House (44.6% on three-pointers) should help, as well.

But the last two games are a good reminder of what might be waiting for the Rockets in the Western Conference playoffs next spring. If Houston’s formula for success continues to rely heavily on Harden producing at historic levels, opponents are going to send incredible amounts of resources his way. To combat that, non-Harden Rockets need to make opposing defenses pay for effectively surrendering a four-on-three in order to double Harden.

There is some reason to believe in organic growth. Giving many of McLemore’s minutes to House should help, and Westbrook should bounce back to some degree. While he’s never been a good three-point shooter, his career mark of 30.5% is significantly better than his current 22% rate. Last year, Westbrook shook off a similarly cold start to his season to connect on nearly 33% of his three-pointers over the year’s second half.

But in the long run, a healthy Gordon might be most important of all, given his unique combination of shooting and playmaking relative to the rest of the current roster.

The Rockets’ offense (No. 3 in net rating) is certainly good enough to win games in the regular season without Gordon. After all, Houston has still won eight of its last 10 overall, even considering the 0-2 road trip.

However, the way both the Nuggets and Clippers won by denying shot attempts to Harden was a reminder of how critical Gordon still is to the Rockets’ ultimate ambition of an NBA championship next June.

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