Welcome to Layup Lines, our basketball newsletter where we’ll prep you for a tip-off of tonight’s action, from what to watch to bets to make. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every afternoon. This is Mike Sykes.
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s Over/Under win total mark is probably going to sit somewhere around 43 to 45 wins. I’m telling you that you should absolutely pound that over.
Here’s the take: I think the Thunder could be a 50-win team next season and one of the homecourt seeds in the Western Conference.
OK, OK. I know that’s a scorching hot take. It takes a lot for a team to, not only jump up in the standings but also to add 10 extra wins to their total record. That’s essentially what I’m counting on the Thunder to do.
But I firmly believe it’s possible. The reason why is simple — the Thunder have one of the best cores in the NBA.
Let’s just start at the top. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the 10 best players in the NBA. There’s not really any arguing that — he was a very easy choice for first-team All-NBA player this year and was an early MVP candidate. This team wasn’t supposed to win 40 games, but much of how competitive it was was because Gilgeous-Alexander was that good.
But you’ve also got Jalen Williams, who carried shooting splits of 50-37-90 on solid shot volume along with incredible defense. He thrust himself into Rookie of the Year conversations by looking like an absolute All-Star.
Chet Holmgren has had an amazing Summer League, too. You can’t put too much into the summer, but Holmgren looks great. For much of the season, the Thunder’s biggest struggle was that they lacked a defensive presence in the paint. Holmgren brings both shot blocking and switchability — both of which have been on full display this summer, including a game where he had 5 blocks against the Pacers.
There’s also this: Think about the rest of the Western Conference. Outside of the Nuggets, who do you really trust at this point? There are so many questions surrounding health for teams like the Lakers, Clippers and Suns. The Warriors, too, to a certain extent. All of their major stars missed time last season. And they’re older — we can’t expect LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and everyone else to play full seasons anymore.
The Thunder are going to have the same opportunity the Kings did in the West last season. While other teams are floundering and struggling to fill gaps on their roster, they’ll have a complete team with players ready to go.
Health isn’t a guarantee, obviously. But the chemistry is certainly there. The rest of the conference is in flux. The moment is ripe for the Thunder to take advantage.
I think they will. Don’t sleep on the Oklahoma City Thunder next year. You’ll regret it.
The Tip-Off
Some NBA goodness from around the USA TODAY Sports network.
Before injuring his ankle, Utah’s Keyonte George was absolutely lighting the NBA Summer League on fire. He averaged 28.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, 8.1 assists and 2.0 steals per 40 minutes.
Anyone who’d payed any attention to George wasn’t surprised by this, though. Our Bryan Kalbrosky has more.
This was nothing new for George, via CBB Analytics, who ranked in the 97th percentile for unassisted 3-pointers per 40 minutes among all players in college basketball last season.
But his ability to score as the ball handler in transition and in the pick-and-roll made him project well as the point guard of the future for the Jazz.
What was especially encouraging, per Synergy, is that George recorded as many dunks (3) in NBA 2K24 Summer League as he did during his entire career at Baylor.
Kalbrosky caught up with George ahead of the NBA draft and the conversation the two of them had shows you exactly why George lit Vegas on fire. Catch that convo here.
Shootaround
— Scoot Henderson seems like a potential all-time “the vibes are on a million” guy. Rejoice, Blazers fans. Y’all got another one.
— LeBron James’ supervillain goggles at the ESPYS were amazing.
— The Celtics might have a gem in Jordan Walsh. Bryan Kalbrosky has more.
—Robert Zeglinski has more on the absolute worst beat of Summer League so far. Why, Manny Camper? Why?
Enjoy the weekend, folks.