I’m sorry John.
The John I refer to above is John Ellis, the co-host of “The Roar,” which is the Carolina Panthers podcast hosted on the Blue Wire podcast network. John also is the co-host of “Game On,” the afternoon show on Fox Sports 104.9 in upstate South Carolina.
John covers the Panthers extensively, and for the past few months we have enjoyed some ongoing banter over whether Jimmy Garoppolo might be the next starting quarterback for the Panthers next season.
I’m sorry John, but I promise this is not a bit.
As the start of training camp looms around the NFL, the football world continues to wonder what cities two passers are going to call home this season: Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo.
When it comes to Garoppolo, schematically one organization makes the most sense.
Carolina.
The pairing of Garoppolo and the Panthers begins with what the quarterback does best, and where he excels. By now, where Garoppolo struggles has become common knowledge. The failures in big-game situations, his struggles to decipher coverage rotations, and his lack of awareness along the boundaries are some of his biggest flaws as a passer.
But his strengths? The things you can trust from him? We know those as well. His accuracy in the short- and intermediate-areas of the field. His ability on play-action designs, and his ability to identify favorable matchups pre-snap and target those matchups quickly in the down with anticipation and accuracy.
We can start with some numbers.
According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, last season Garoppolo posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 70.2% in the intermediate area of the field, defined as throws in the 10- to 19-yard range. Among qualified passers, only Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins posted a higher ACP.
On throws targeting receivers in the short-area of the field (defined as throws in the 0- to 9-yard range) Garoppolo posted an ACP of 83.7%, which placed him 12th among qualified passers.
Yet when you talk about attacking downfield, that is where you see the steep decline. Garoppolo’s ACP of 33.3% placed him 31st in the league among qualified passers.
Tied with Taysom Hill.
Again, none of this is breaking new ground. The book on Garoppolo has been written, and it begins with his accuracy attacking near the line of scrimmage. Combined with his ability to identify favorable situations pre-snap, that makes plays like this one against the Los Angeles Rams designs that he can execute effectively:
On this 2nd and 8 play, Garppolo sees the cornerback playing well off over wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk prior to the snap, while the slot receiver has a cornerback in press alignment. With the San Francisco 49ers running double slant routes to that side of the field, Garoppolo’s eyes immediately come to the boundary slant route, rather than the inside receiver. A quick decision combined with a well-placed throw turns this into a gain of 21 yards and a fresh set of downs for San Francisco.
Or take this play against the Atlanta Falcons, with Garoppolo working a slant/flat combination to the right side of the field out of 21 offensive personnel:
Garoppolo makes another quick read and throw thanks in part to information gained before the snap. Prior to the play, the 49ers use both a shift, and a bit of motion, which gives Garoppolo some pre-snap indicators. First, tight end George Kittle shifts from the right side of the formation to the left. Second, fullback Kyle Juszczyk bumps from his starting point as the lead back in the backfield to the slot on the right side. After both movements, the Falcons are static defensively.
While this does not confirm with 100% certainty that the Falcons are in zone coverage, it gives Garoppolo a good reason to believe they are. With the cornerback again playing off over the boundary receiver, as with the previous example, the QB hits the slant route in stride for a big gain.
Again, none of this is treading new ground. We know who Garoppolo is as a passer, for better or worse.
But why is Carolina the best fit for him?
It begins with their new offensive coordinator.
Back in January, the Panthers hired Ben McAdoo to take over as their offensive coordinator, after letting Joe Brady go midway through the 2021 campaign. McAdoo’s NFL journey began back in 2004, when he stepped away from an offer to be an assistant coach at Akron to take a quality control position on the offensive staff in New Orleans with the Saints.
Under offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy.
When McCarthy moved to San Francisco for the 2005 season, he brought McAdoo onto the staff to serve as an assistant offensive line coach as well as a quality control coach. A year later McCarthy took the job as the head coach in Green Bay, and McAdoo followed him to coach the Packers tight ends. He eventually moved into the quarterback room, serving as Green Bay’s quarterbacks coach for the 2012 and 2013 seasons.
McAdoo’s next stop? The Big Apple. He spent two seasons as the Giants’ offensive coordinator, and then was named their head coach in 2016. In his rookie season at the helm of the Giants, the team finished with an 11-5 record and qualified for the playoffs, losing to the Packers in the Wild Card round.
McAdoo’s tenure in New York did not last long, as he was fired after the Giants sputtered to a 2-10 start the following season.
But it is his journey that makes him perhaps an ideal coach — and the Panthers an ideal fit — for Garoppolo. McAdoo’s NFL background is rooted in the quick-strike, West Coast philosophy of McCarthy, under whom McAdoo cut his teeth in the league.
During his time in New York, both as head coach and offensive coordinator, you can see how his philosophy looked on the field.
And it looked quite similar to the designs that put Garoppolo in a position to succeed during his time in San Francisco:
Of course, it helps when you have a player the likes of Odell Beckham Jr. to target in the passing game, but on this snap, Eli Manning targets Beckham on a slant route, part of a slant/flat concept that also features a back attacking the flat. A quick throw with good placement, and the receiver is off to the races.
While McAdoo’s offense was perhaps not the best fit for Manning, who was at his best attacking downfield, during the 2014 season — McAdoo’s first as the offensive coordinator — Manning posted an ACP of 67.5% when attacking in the intermediate-area of the field.
That was his best such number during his entire NFL career.
Prior to the 2022 NFL draft, McAdoo was asked repeatedly about the quarterbacks in this draft class, given Carolina’s needs at the position. Regarding the traits he looks for in passers, he had this to say: “When these guys play in these RPO offenses, they usually have a pretty good feel on where to go with the ball and they pull the trigger pretty quickly. I think those are two things that are very valuable in this league.”
While this could apply to some of the rookies that were in the draft — including Carolina’s third-round pick, Matt Corral — those traits that McAdoo values are also found in Garoppolo.
Now, while the veteran passer might fit best in Carolina, there are obviously other concerns. What would it cost the Panthers to acquire him via a trade, and would they be willing to pay that price? Furthermore, is Carolina even fully invested in a veteran option given the presence of Sam Darnold and Corral on the roster? As I have told my friend John on the radio more than a few times, given the selection of Corral — and his own strengths as a passer — I would be personally more inclined to give Corral meaningful snaps this year rather than expend additional draft capital in Garoppolo.
But I am not the one making decisions.
I’ll just be the one talking about it with my buddy John if and when it does happen.