After a disappointing 11-7 season, San Diego State has the 5th seed in the Mountain West tournament. Despite finishing lower than most thought they would, there is still hope for a tournament championship, as well as an automatic bid and higher seed in the big dance. Here’s why:
Defense
SDSU has the 8th best defense in the nation, and the best in the Mountain West. The Next closest is Boise State down at 28th. That defense has let the Aztecs keep every game close, the only exception being an 18-point loss in the PIT. Even with that loss, the Aztecs average margin of defeat is a mere six points. In their last four losses, it’s only 3.75 points.
Every loss has been one or two plays away from being a different result. Compare that to champion Utah State, who lost their four games by an average of 15.25 points. When other teams have an off night they tend to lose badly. When the Aztecs have an off night, the game can go either way. That’s due to their elite defense. Just like their defense carried them to the national championship last season, it can carry them to the Mountain West Championship this season.
Jaedon LeDee
What needs to be said about Jaedon LeDee? He should be named an All-American, and he is the most deserving player for the Conference Player of the Year award. He ranks first in Player Impact Plus-Minus, Box Plus-Minus, Win Shares, and leads the league in scoring despite being double and triple-teamed every time he touches the ball. He has come across those points in a hyper-efficient manner, ranking in the 91st percentile nationally in terms of points per possession. To top things off, he is also 4th in the conference in total rebounds.
He has been held to less than 15 points only four times since conference season started, all on the road, and has scored more than 20 points ten times in that same span. Opponents can not stop him, they can only hope to contain him. A scorer like that, combined with elite defense, is a great foundation for winning.
Better luck
For those that believe in such things, the Aztecs have had some terrible luck this season. Players who have historically been good shooters have heavily regressed, and are missing wide open shots. Easy layups have rolled out. And to make matters worse, opponents have been hitting shots like the one Max Rice hit in overtime at Viejas.
MAX RICE JUST HAD ONE OF THOSE SHOTSpic.twitter.com/cdWXA2dwoW
— Mid-Major Madness (@mid_madness) March 9, 2024
KenPom measures the luck of each team, and the Aztecs rank 274th nationally in terms of luck. Well below average, meaning they’ve had a healthy amount of bad luck. For comparison, Utah State is 18th nationally, and Nevada is 33rd. In the teams in the top five of the tournament, SDSU is by far the worst.
On the bright side, that could mean fortune is about to change. One extra stop, and one extra basket made is the difference in most of the Aztecs’ losses. Getting that little extra will mean the difference between winning and going home early.
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