The Rams are expected to rely on Puka Nacua in 2024 so it’s safe to say that the team is betting heavily on the NFL’s rookie sensation. Entering Year 2, there’s no cloud of confused expectations. No mystery about who Nacua is.
Nacua is the Rams’ No. 1 target and if the Rams are betting on him, perhaps you should too. Puka Nacua currently sits at +2100 odds to be the NFL’s receiving yards leader. That means if you bet $100 and Nacua wins the title, you would win $2,100.
Here’s why Nacua is a smart bet. In 2023, Tyreek Hill led the league with 1,799 receiving yards. He hit that mark with 119 receptions and a 15.1 yards per catch average.
Nacua in 2023 put up 105 catches for 1,486 yards and a 14.2 YPC average. Thus in his inaugural season, Nacua was only behind Hill in yards per catch by 0.9, so 1-yard difference.
So if Hill and Nacua are similar in yards per catch, why is there a 14-catch and 313-yard differential between the two? Well, Hill was targeted 11 more times than Nacua, 171-160.
Hill maxed out as the Dolphins’ WR1 but Nacua was stifled by his various stints as the Rams WR2. Hill’s partner Jaylen Waddle was targeted 104 times in 14 games. Cooper Kupp was targeted 95 times in 12 games. Waddle was targeted a bit less than Kupp, leading to more opportunities for Hill compared to Nacua.
So as a No. 2, Nacua hit similar marks to Hill. Nacua did have an extra game to do it in but of course, Nacua was removed from the week 18 season finale after breaking NFL rookie records.
But let’s think about it like this. Let’s put Nacua as the WR1 in the same offense that produced Cooper Kupp’s triple crown season. In 2021, Kupp put up 145 catches off of 191 targets for a completion percentage of 80 percent. Kupp also had 1,947 yards, 148 more than Hill.
If we take those numbers and place them on an expected Nacua production tract, we’ll see Nacua have 180 targets in 2024, 11 less than Kupp in 2021 and 9 more than Hill – a proper median.
We’ll give Nacua a completion percentage of 70 which would turn 180 targets into 126 catches. Nacua had a 14.2 YPC average in 2023 so we’ll multiply 14.2 by 126 catches to get 1,789 yards, or 10 less than Hill.
So by sheer medians, Nacua will finish 10 yards short of Tyreek Hill’s 2023 mark. Considering the age of Hill, the play of Tua Tagovailoa compared to Matthew Stafford and the expected target increase in year two, it looks likely Nacua could have a career year while Hill’s numbers decrease.
And remember while Tua can’t throw in the cold, LA will be spending their winter months primarily in perfect weather. Just some food for thought.