Obviously, the big story in Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season is Tom Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium for the first time since his 20-year relationship with Bill Belichick ended. Brady won yet another Super Bowl with a fully-developed Buccaneers team that only needed a transcendent quarterback to push it over the top, while the Patriots were a team in transition with a ton of defensive opt-outs and Cam Newton as Brady’s one-year replacement. Newton was never a fit with the Patriots — the Patriots didn’t maximize Newton’s ability as a runner, especially in the red zone, and Newton’s combination as a passer of explosive plays and randomness wasn’t ideal for a head coach in Belichick and an offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels who were used to Brady, the mechanical freak and robotic quarterback.
So, the Patriots decided to put their real post-Brady future in the hands of Alabama’s Mac Jones, which on the surface presented the best possible option for Jones’ combination of consistency, pocket movement, and complete and total lack of second-reaction ability. This was only going to work if the Patriots could give Jones the same plan they gave Brady early in Brady’s career — run a great defense out there, lean on your run game, and give Brady just enough of the offense to avoid messing things up.
But through three games, Jones has been asked to create explosive plays more often than expected. Per Pro Football Focus, he’s thrown 16 passes of 20 or more air yards, tied with Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers for fourth-most in the league. And on those throws, Jones has completed four for 97 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception.
Last Sunday in a 28-13 loss to the Saints in which New Orleans had a 21-6 lead late in the third quarter, and the Patriots had to try and lean on Jones’ ostensible ability to get the ball downfield, it was even worse. Jones attempted 11 deep throws, completing one to his own team for 27 yards, and one to Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The interception was a desperation heave at the end of the game, where the Patriots ran four verts and Jones made a horrible throw, but the point stands. Jones is not throwing deep well at all, and when you’re facing a Buccaneers team that leads the league averaging 34.3 points per game, if you can’t create explosive plays in the passing game, you are in a lot of trouble.
Brady isn’t incredible with the deep ball so far this season, completing seven of 18 deep attempts for 198 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, but it’s not a problem for Bruce Arians’ offense — at least, not at this point, and probably not against an opposing quarterback with fairly epic deep-ball struggles.
“I think it just goes back to execution,” Jones said after the Saints loss, in which he had no choice but to heave the ball 51 times, completing 30 passes for 240 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and two sacks. “I can do a better job just sticking to my reads and being patient and letting things develop. I didn’t do a good job of that today. We’ll get better, and we’ve made it a point of emphasis. Today it didn’t show, but we’re going to just flip the page and continue to work and try to find ways, whether it’s creativity or whatever. It’s really not my job to call the plays. Josh is going to do a great job coming up with ways to improve that. I know he will because he’s a competitor just like all of us and we’re all wanting to score points. It’s not like we’re all happy with just kicking. We want to score as much as we can.”
They’ll need to score as much as they can to beat Brady and the Buccaneers, but perhaps relying on Jones to air it out isn’t yet the answer.