Let’s play a game.
Say what you want about mock drafts, but the ability to track mock drafts over time does illustrate trends. Not just for the prospects themselves, but even trends with teams. As needs chance, mocks begin to reflect the altered landscape.
But the trendline with prospects is fascinating to see, particularly as events such as the Senior Bowl, the Shrine Bowl, Pro Days and certainly the NFL Scouting Combine unfold.
That brings us to Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis. Prior to the Combine, Davis was trending near the end of the first round in mock drafts.
Then, he posted an unread 4.78 40-yard dash at 341 pounds.
Want to know what that did to his draft stock? See if you can guess what date he ran the 40-yard dash as you examine this image, which illustrates his trendline dating back to December, courtesy of the Mock Draft Database:
On March 4th, Davis was coming off the board in most mocks around the 24th spot in the first round.
He ran his 40-yard dash the next day.
By March 8th, the next data point on that chart, Davis was near the top-15. Now he is inside the top-15 in mock drafts, often landing with the Baltimore Ravens at 14 overall.
Is this shift in draft fortunes an overreaction to the Combine, or more a reflection of where he should have been viewed all along?
Today I’ll make the case for the latter.