The Dallas Cowboys have won 12 games for the second straight season, which is something they haven’t done since the 1994-1995 NFL seasons. The 1995 NFL season was the last in which Jerry Jones’ team won a Super Bowl, so if you’re looking for good omens, Cowboys fans, there’s that.
A not-so-good omen is the interception rate of quarterback Dak Prescott. Before this season, Prescott had been one of the league’s safest quarterbacks when it came to throwing interceptions in bunches. His interception rate of 1.7% (50 picks on 2,889 attempts) from 2016-2021 is tied for fifth-lowest with Alex Smith among quarterbacks with at least 1,000 passing attempts over that time. And it’s not as if Prescott has been risk-averse over that period — his yards per attempt of 7.6 over his first six NFL seasons ranks seventh in the NFL.
This season, however, has been very different. Prescott is tied with Derek Carr of the Las Vegas Raiders and Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings for the league lead in interceptions with 14, and that’s despite the fact that he’s missed five games early in the season with a fractured thumb. His interception rate of 3.9% is more than double what it’s been in any of his previous seasons except for 2017 (2.7%). Prescott has thrown multiple interceptions in five of his 11 starts this season, and in four of his last six.
It’s not that Prescott has been bad or a specific liability to his team outside of these alarming trends — he ranks sixth in DVOA and 11th in DYAR among quarterbacks this season — but as the playoffs approach, the air gets thinner, and every mistake can mean more, it’s certainly a concern.
The Cowboys would like to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 27 seasons. If they are to do that, their quarterback will have to throw the ball at a higher rate to his teammates, and at a lower rate to his opponents.
Seems obvious, but when it’s been going on this long, it’s worth getting into what Prescott and his coaches are also doing — grinding the tape, getting to the roots of the problems, and trying to solve them.
“I can promise you, we’re coaching it,” Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said after Dallas’ 27-13 Week 17 win over the Tennessee TItans, in which Prescott threw two interceptions to safety Kevin Byard. “We’re emphasizing it. He’s wired the right way. Our players are wired the right way. So, unfortunately, you go through ups and downs in this league. That’s the beauty of how competitive this league is. This was a game we needed to get and we got it done. So whether we don’t get any style points, that’s OK. But we’re still at 12 wins.”
Style points are not the point, and McCarthy knows that. But he’s got to help his quarterback get to the other side of a worrisome problem.
So, here it is: Why the heck, after so many years as one of the NFL’s more efficient quarterbacks, is one Rayne Dakota Prescott barfing the ball all over the field in such unusual ways? Or, is there more to the story than Prescott himself?
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