Why has Bill Belichick struggled to develop receivers with the Patriots?

Bill Belichick is a first-ballot hall of famer when he retires. But if he has a weakness, it might be in how he views wide receivers.

It seems almost sacrilegious to dare question the wisdom of one William Stephen Belichick.

After all, during his time in New England as the head coach of the Patriots, he has delivered six Super Bowl titles, numerous division titles and appearances in the AFC Championship Game, and turned what was a laughing stock of a franchise into perhaps the model NFL organization.

But, everyone – even the greatest of all time – has an Achilles’ Heel.

For Bill Belichick, it might just be the wide receiver position.

The most recent example of this odd phenomeon came down this week, when the Patriots moved on from veteran wide receiver Mohamed Sanu. After sending a second-round pick to the Atlanta Falcons for Sanu prior to last season’s trading deadline, here is what the Patriots got in return:

26 receptions for 207 yards and a touchdown.

Not exactly the return on an investment you would like.

But the Sanu move is just one item on a long list of mistakes the organization has made at the wide receiver position. We can start with the receivers drafted by the Patriots during the Belichick Era:

  • 2019: N’Keal Harry: Round 1, Pick 32
  • 2018: Braxton Berrios: Round 6, Pick 210
  • 2016: Malcolm Mitchell: Round 4, Pick 112
  • 2016: Devin Lucien: Round 7, Pick 225
  • 2014: Jeremy Gallon: Round 7, Pick 244
  • 2013: Aaron Dobson: Round 2, Pick 59
  • 2013: Josh Boyce: Round 4, Pick 102
  • 2012: Jeremy Ebert: Round 7, Pick 235
  • 2010: Taylor Price: Round 3, Pick 90
  • 2009: Brandon Tate: Round 3, Pick 83
  • 2009: Julian Edelman: Round 7, Pick 232
  • 2008: Matthew Slater: Round 5, Pick 153
  • 2006: Chad Jackson: Round 2, Pick 36
  • 2004: P.K. Sam: Round 5, Pick 164
  • 2003: Bethel Johnson: Round 2, Pick 45
  • 2002: Deion Branch: Round 2, Pick 65
  • 2002: David Givens: Round 7, Pick 253

Quite a list.

Now, the jury is obviously still out on Harry, who found himself on the outside of the “Tom Brady Circle of Trust” last season but has a chance at redemption here in 2020 with Cam Newton at the helm. Obviously Julian Edelman in the seventh round of the 2009 draft was a big hit, and Matthew Slater has been a stalwart on special teams for the Patriots since his rookie season. Deion Branch won a Super Bowl MVP during his time in New England, in the victory over the Carolina Panthers back in Super Bowl XXXIX. David Givens also played a solid role during New England’s first dynastic run.

But scanning through that list highlights more misses than hits. Malcolm Mitchell was a big part of New England’s comeback win in Super Bowl LI, with Brady targeting the rookie on some critical third downs during the second half, but his career was cut short due to injuries. Brandon Tate, Chad Jackson and Bethel Johnson also stand out as some poor selections by New England during this time. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but when the Patriots selected Jackson in the second round back in 2009, there were two other receivers available who were picked later in that round: Greg Jennings and Devin Hester.

I’m not saying…I’m just saying.

Then there are the receivers acquired during free agency, or via trade. Sure, there have been some huge hits there, most notably Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Danny Amendola was also a solid acquisition for the Patriots, and he played a huge role in their comeback victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars en route to Super Bowl LII. Brandon LaFell was a nice piece for them during their run to Super Bowl XLIX.

But they missed in free agency as well. Chad Ochocinco never panned out, Joey Galloway, who they signed at the end of his career, never panned out. J.J. Stokes, Donald Hayes, and yes, Antonio Brown also failed to live up to the billing.

Could there be a problem with how the team evaluates the position, at both the pro and the college level? Perhaps. Looking at Belichick’s scouting notes, recently shared by Daniel Jeremiah, the traits they look for are still applicable today:

There’s also the chance that…evaluating players is hard. Even over the course of a twenty-year run with six Super Bowl titles, you are going to make some mistakes.

But working through these lists, something does stand out. The receivers that have enjoyed perhaps the most success in New England during this run? Edelman, Welker, Amendola, Branch and Moss? Is there perhaps a common trait – or better yet role – that you can group them by?

What if you remove Moss from the mix?

Slot receivers.

While Amendola is perhaps viewed as a complementary piece, from Branch to Welker and now Edelman, the Patriots have gotten that position right. Yet it begs the question: Given their track record at evaluating receivers on the whole, is the success of these players due to how well they evaluate for that role, the role of a slot receiver in New England’s offense and how it is conducive to success, or perhaps most importantly, how Tom Brady – the quarterback during the entire run – used the slot receiver as his security blanket?

What if New England’s failure at evaluating the position is not so much a product of their process, but is a byproduct of how their quarterback during this run played the position? Perhaps there is a bit of a “chicken and the egg” situation at work. Was Brady’s reliance on targeting slot receivers the reason those players panned out, while others failed? Or do the Patriots simply get that position right while they struggle at evaluating the more traditional X and Z roles, and therefore Brady was forced to target players such as Welker and Edelman more in the offense as a result?

One way to test that? Remove Brady from the equation and see what happens.

This year, we’ll get our chance.