Why Game 7 is about more than just this season for the Rockets

With a win, the Rockets advance to the second round of the playoffs. With a loss, the season ends without any clear ways to improve.

For Houston, Wednesday’s Game 7 of their first-round playoff series versus Oklahoma City isn’t just an elimination game. It potentially could define the legacy and viability of this entire era of Rockets basketball.

Win it, and there’s new life against a Lakers team that Houston’s small-ball approach was specifically designed to beat. Perhaps they lose, anyway, and maybe going seven games in the first round leads to tired legs down the line. But at a bare minimum, they’re able to hit the reset button and start anew with a fresh series and opponent. Russell Westbrook would potentially be healthier, too, after missing time with a quad injury.

Lose, and the 2019-20 season is over — all without any real hope of improvement for the foreseeable future.

This is a very different spot than fans are accustomed to. 2015-16 was a disappointing season, but they had max cap space and a chance to retool the roster. In 2016-17, James Harden was still just 27 years old, and they had enough young assets to strike a deal for Chris Paul after the season. 2017-18 was defined by Paul’s ill-timed hamstring injury in the Western Conference Finals against the Warriors, and the team had reasonable hope that “running it back” could yield a different result.

Even after losing to Golden State again in 2018-19, the case could be made that the relative breakup of the Warriors had opened the door, since that was the lone team that Houston couldn’t beat in the playoffs.

None of that applies in 2020, should the Rockets lose in the first round to Oklahoma City. And with the team’s co-stars and former MVPs both 31 years old, it’s difficult to see a path where improvement from within leads to a championship outcome. More realistically, given the ages of the team’s core players, a slow decline is much more likely.

They could easily swap out the head coach, since Mike D’Antoni isn’t yet under contract for 2020-21. But unless there are major changes to the roster — and that’s hard to imagine, given the advanced age and contract status of most of the team’s core players — then it’s a tall order to expect a major jump from a coaching change alone, considering that the current roster and playing style was developed with D’Antoni in mind.

Here’s a look at the current status of the three biggest names within the franchise (Harden, Westbrook, and D’Antoni), and what’s potentially at stake when Game 7 tips off at 8:00 p.m. Central on Wednesday night.

James Harden

Harden hasn’t been the problem, but he also hasn’t been the ultimate solution for the Rockets in this series. Given his stature as a perennial MVP finalist, it’s fair to be a little bothered by that.

Excluding a last-second heave when the game was already over, Harden shot just one time in the final 4:00 of Game 6 — when the Thunder blitzed Houston with a 12-2 run to close the game. In some ways, it was reminiscent of when Harden shot just one time in the final 8:30 of Game 5 at Golden State a year ago, with the series hanging in the balance.

In the Golden State example, Houston scored on nine of its final 11 possessions, so it was somewhat understandable that Harden wouldn’t want to break up what was working. This time, with only two points in the final four minutes, they desperately needed a takeover.

They didn’t get it.

Again, let’s be clear: Harden has been great in this series, overall. He’s scoring 31.5 points per game on 48.8% shooting, both of which are playoff career-high marks for him. He’s also averaging 7.8 assists and 6.8 rebounds, and his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and True Shooting (TS) Percentage are a ridiculous 29.7 and 63.9%, respectively. His turnover rate of 3.0 per game is his lowest in the playoffs since 2014.

And yet, with three games there for the taking in the final minutes and seconds of regulation, Houston didn’t win any of them. We saw Chris Paul step up for the Thunder in such a scenario in Game 6, with eight points in the final closing run. Even if Houston wins Game 7 and advances to the second round, the Rockets are too imperfect (as evidenced by their 44-28 record) to expect to make a title run by dominating four games per series.

In Houston’s three wins versus the Thunder, their average margin of victory is by more than 20 points per game. In three losses, they’ve led in the final 2:00 of each, yet couldn’t get to the finish line in any of them. That’s largely the job of superstar players in the NBA playoffs.

Despite Harden’s gaudy overall numbers, it’s fair to be disappointed in his inability (so far) to take over in those pressure spots. Now at 31 years old and in his eighth season with the Rockets, Harden is running out of those types of opportunities in his true prime years.

Even if his team loses Game 7, he’s still the second-greatest player in franchise history. But to win a title, especially with an imperfect and aging roster, they need Harden to be at his best in the highest-leverage moments. So far, he hasn’t been. Given his place as one of the league’s best players, it’s reasonable for fans to have some frustrations about it.

Russell Westbrook

To put it mildly, Westbrook hasn’t been good in two games since returning from a quad strain. His PER and TS numbers are a woeful 6.5 and 40.3%, respectively. His game-high seven turnovers led Game 6, and two came in the final 90 seconds with the game within a possession. He badly airballed a mid-range shot that could have given Houston the lead.

It’s not fair to put too much of the blame for this series on Westbrook, given his likely physical limitations and the expected rust when coming off a multi-week injury. Nonetheless, given the premium they paid to acquire him last offseason, it would be a major storyline if Houston loses.

The Rockets gave up two future first-round picks to Oklahoma City in the Paul-Westbrook deal, along with the rights to swap picks in two other upcoming drafts. Westbrook’s relative youth (31 years old) compared to Paul (35) and his supposed durability were reasons for the move, yet Paul has clearly been the better and more durable player in the series.

In a normal situation, for a team with two All-Stars on the wrong side of 30 and not having a clear path to title contention, the franchise might consider rebuilding. But in five of the next seven drafts from 2020 through 2026, Houston either doesn’t own its pick or doesn’t control it, since OKC has the right to swap picks. Thus, the usual incentive of rebuilding — accumulating young talent via high draft picks — isn’t there.

Yet, there would be no obvious path back to contention, either. Westbrook is owed an average of more than $44 million per season over the next three years, and he will be 32 years old next season. Given that contract and his age, it doesn’t appear that Houston would find much of a trade market for him. The premium of those future picks was to help incentivize Oklahoma City to take on the contract of a 34-year-old Paul following an injury-plagued season — and now, ironically, a healthy Paul is helping the Thunder torch Westbrook and the Rockets.

In short, the likely outcome is for Westbrook to stick around. But if the Rockets don’t come close to getting it done in 2020 with Westbrook and Harden each at 31 years old, it’s hard to have much greater hope for the years ahead. Even if Westbrook is healthier in, say, the 2021 playoffs, that could easily be counteracted by the roster being a year older.

Mike D’Antoni

The vast majority of blame for Houston’s current predicament shouldn’t fall on the head coach. Rockets GM Daryl Morey put together a roster led by a pair of All-Star guards and former MVPs in Westbrook and Harden — and for various reasons, neither has fully lived up to their promise in the first-round series. Neither has Eric Gordon, who is shooting below 19% on 3-pointers. This is despite a contract extension that is set to pay him more than $18 million per year on average, starting next season.

For those types of contractual reasons, it’s hard to foresee a major shift in the roster. All of Houston’s five starters are under contract for next season, and four are at least 31 years old. That limits their potential trade value. And the Rockets are at roughly $100 million in team salary just between Harden, Gordon, and Westbrook, which means they won’t have any cap space beyond the Mid-Level Exception (MLE) to lure free agents.

The one key contributor who isn’t under contract? It’s head coach Mike D’Antoni. And there also isn’t a salary cap on coaches.

Thus, between the difficulties of breaking up the roster and D’Antoni already lacking a contract, it’s easy to see a scenario where perhaps the Rockets gamble on a coaching change — similar to when Toronto switched out Dwane Casey for Nick Nurse in 2018 — since their options with major roster moves appear to be quite limited.

From a practical standpoint, however, it’s hard to envision that bringing  major improvement. After all, the small-ball system — which emphasizes playmaking guards, position versatility, and 3-point shooting — and the current roster was all put together with D’Antoni in mind.

So the comparison isn’t simply another head coach to D’Antoni, who leads the Rockets in all-time coaching winning percentage in both the regular season (.682) and playoffs (.578). It would be another head coach to D’Antoni, all with a roster specifically designed for his system.

In short, the most likely outcome of a Game 7 loss in the first round would appear to be a change at head coach and some roster tweaks at the margins. However, a radical reconstruction appears unlikely.

Considering the ages of Houston’s marquee players, it’s difficult to foresee that being a championship formula. And yet, based on the draft compensation they surrendered in the Paul-Westbrook deal, there’s no clear incentive to immediately tear it down and consider a rebuild.

In effect, the likely scenario would be a gradual decline from year to year, and without any real upside for the foreseeable future. They’re stuck.

On the other hand, with a win in Game 7, there’s hope. Look back to 2014 San Antonio, which was pushed to the brink of elimination in the first round by Dallas before going on a title run. In fact, that Game 7 versus the Mavericks was the only elimination game those Spurs would play.

For a number of reasons, 2020 is probably the best shot for this group of Rockets. If it ends in the first round, it’s hard to see a path forward — but it’s equally challenging to see a realistic exit strategy.

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