Why Florida’s defense is unlikely to bounce back from a rough 2020

Only time will tell if UF’s defense will improve in 2021. But looking at the numbers from the last three seasons, it doesn’t seem likely.

The Florida Gators fanbase became quite perplexed when head coach Dan Mullen elected to keep defensive coordinator Todd Grantham on staff after such a porous season on that side of the ball. Instead of letting Grantham go, Mullen opted to fire cornerbacks coach Torrian Gray and safety Ron English hoping that will fix the defense.

Only time will tell if those changes will pay off, but Will Miles of Read & Reaction looked back at Florida’s defensive stats from the last three seasons. He came away with one main conclusion that the 2019 season was more of an outlier than the trend.

The 2019 Gators defense was the best unit Grantham has had in Gainesville. The team only surrendered explosive plays 10.05% of the time and allowed about 5.05 yards per play versus SEC opponents.

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Florida’s defense in 2018 was also strong that had them ranked top 30 in points allowed and yards per game nationally. But diving deeper, the numbers suggested that the 2018 defense was eerily similar to 2020.

The 2018 squad gave up explosive plays 11.64% of the time compared to 2020s 10.73%. The trend continued when looking at yards per play allowed. The 2020 unit surrendered 5.69 versus 2018s 5.72. The only significant difference between the two years is the fumble recovery rate where 2018 came up with the loose football 62.5% compared to 48.2%. It’s difficult to repeat that success because fumbles are usually a 50/50 proposition.

The only reason the 2018 team fared better statistically is due to cupcake games. Florida played Charleston Southern, Colorado State, Idaho and a down Florida State team. The Gators in 2020 played an all-SEC schedule.

Because of these numbers, Miles is right that 2019 seems like more of an outlier than the trend and therefore, it’d be surprising to see Florida make major strides on defense in 2021.