Why Alex Bowman could steal a Cup Series win at Watkins Glen

Alex Bowman could be a sleeper to take the victory at Watkins Glen International and clinch a spot in the 2023 NASCAR playoffs.

[autotag]Alex Bowman[/autotag] is not known to be an elite road course driver but last weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race at the Indianapolis Road Course represented a turning point for several reasons. Bowman willed the No. 48 car to a fifth-place finish, despite having a mechanical issue near the end of the event.

In fact, it was the Hendrick Motorsports driver’s first top-10 finish since returning from his back injury at the Coca-Cola 600 on May 29. The summer stretch has been difficult for Bowman as he has suffered several unfortunate events, whether that is due to Denny Hamlin at Chicago and Pocono or a mechanical issue in the closing laps at Gateway.

However, Indianapolis might be the spark that Bowman needed heading into the final two races of the NASCAR regular season. The driver of the No. 48 car sits 20th in the point standings with an 80-point deficit, which is very likely a must-win situation. Ironically, the best chance for a victory may come on a track where Bowman has struggled in the past.

Watkins Glen International is coming up this weekend and it is fair to characterize Bowman as a sleeper to take the victory. There are a few main reasons why this is the case, including his performance at Indianapolis. In the last 17 laps, Bowman consistently had a top-3 car on speed with a handful of laps that were faster than the four drivers in front of him.

Also, the Hendrick Motorsports driver had the fifth-best driver rating (104.5), fifth-best average running position (7.89), and eighth-best green flag speed (96.978 MPH). This all came at a track that featured one of the longest green-flag runs in recent memory and where Bowman had never finished in the top 15 spots. Simply put, it was one of his best performances on a road course yet, excluding the Charlotte ROVAL.

 

It certainly creates optimism for Watkins Glen. Bowman will get extra track time in the No. 17 car for Hendrick Motorsports in the NASCAR Xfinity Series event and it represents a track where the organization had ran very well lately. Hendrick Motorsports has won the last four races dating back to the 2018 season when Chase Elliott claimed his first Cup Series victory.

Elliott’s dominance at Watkins Glen is a concern for anyone else needing a victory; however, the driver of the No. 9 car has not been as dominant on road courses with the NextGen car. The door has been opened for the likes of Daniel Suarez and Michael McDowell to beat Elliott on road courses. Bowman can add his name to the list this weekend.

Sure, Bowman has a best finish of 14th place (three times) at Watkins Glen but look back at Indianapolis. The Arizona native didn’t have a top-15 finish at the venue and still went faster than Elliott a total of nine times in the last 17 laps, which also equals out to 52.9% over that period. Obviously, each driver had to deal with lap traffic at different times but the point remains.

There won’t be many people that label Bowman as a sleeper to win at Watkins Glen but the evidence is present for a significant breakthrough. At the end of the day, it might not happen but it wouldn’t be too surprising to see the No. 48 car with a new winner’s sticker on the side of it this Sunday.

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