Boxing Junkie staffers are trying to have some fun while the sport is on hiatus because of the coronavirus pandemic.
One of the questions fans love to ask even amid a busy schedule is, “Who would win if …?” With that in mind, we decided to create our own “Who Wins?” feature, in which we pit a single fighter against each of five potential opponents and indicate who we believe would win the fights.
We started the series Sunday with our No. 1 boxer pound-for-pound, Vasiliy Lomachenko, Monday we focused on No. 2-rated Terence Crawford and yesterday it was No. 3 Canelo Alvarez’s turn.
Today? No. 4 Naoya Inoue.
The unbeaten Japanese sensation faces Luis Nery, Juan Francisco Estrada, Guillermo Rigondeaux, Roman Gonzalez and Srisaket Sor Rungvisai.
Note that Estrada, Gonzalez and Sor Rungvisai all fight at junior bantamweight, a division below Inoue’s. Also note that Estrada (No. 9) and Sor Rungvisai (No. 14) are on the Boxing Junkie pound-for-pound list and Gonzalez was on top of the heap not long ago.
As in the case of the previous three subjects, our staffers – Michael Rosenthal, Norm Frauenheim and Sean Nam – give their picks in each of Alvarez’s five fights. We then tally Inoue’s record in those fights and present our standings.
We want to acknowledge that the choice of possible opponents is subjective. We’re looking for the best possible but also realistic foes for our featured boxers. One caveat: We won’t consider promotional and managerial rivalries that often stand in the way of the best matchups. And we’re operating under the assumption that none of our featured boxers will fight with ring rust as result of their forced coronavirus-related layoff.
The plan is to work our way down our pound-for-pound list each day. That means our featured fighter tomorrow will be No. 5 Oleksandr Usyk.
So here goes: Inoue vs. his five potential opponents.
INOUE (19-0, 16 KOs) VS. NERY (30-0, 24 KOs)
Rosenthal: Luis Nery is a scary proposition for anyone at bantamweight. The question is this: Can he still make 118? The Mexican, who has a history of missing weight, was scheduled to move up to 122 but a fight with Aaron Alameda was canceled because of the coronavirus. If he could make 118? He’d be dangerous for Inoue because they have a similar combination of skill, explosiveness and knockout power. This is a war from beginning to end with Inoue winning a close decision.
Frauenheim: Nery has dangerous power. The left-hander can whack with either hand. But he’s lanky and likes to move inside with long, looping punches. He’s better at moving forward than backing away. Inoue catches him with quick and lethal counters as he steps in. Inoue in a late-round knockout.
Nam: Perhaps the most challenging opponent on here. There is a compelling storyline here, too. Nery fought Inoue’s countryman Shinsuke Yamanaka twice, winning both times, but also cheated both times (tested positive for PEDs after the first bout, missed weight in the second). Nery throws furious combinations, but also swings wide, making him a sitting duck for Inoue’s razor-sharp, compact right hands and left hooks. Inoue by unanimous decision.
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INOUE VS. ESTRADA (40-3, 27 KOs)
Rosenthal: Estrada is a complete fighter, meaning he’s a handful for anyone. He’ll outbox you, he’ll hurt you and he’ll almost certainly beat you. He’s a 115-pounder, though. He has fought above that weight but not against an elite opponent like Inoue. The guess here is that he’d be at too much of a physical disadvantage against Inoue, who would have trouble in the first half of the fight but slowly break Estrada down and win a clear decision.
Frauenheim: Estrada is a classic boxer-puncher, solid in every way. But he was vulnerable to a busy style, which was what Gonzalez used to beat him by decision. Inoue varies the angles and the rate of his combinations, all done to set up his signature punch — a left hook to the body. Inoue, unanimous decision.
Nam: The most skilled fighter here. He also has an underrated chin, as evidenced in his fights against a prime Roman Gonzalez and Srisaket Sor Rungvisai (twice). Not sure it holds up here against Inoue at 118. It’s a competitive bout for most of the fight, but Inoue’s power will take over late, eventually earning him a stoppage.
INOUE VS. RIGONDEAUX (20-1, 13 KOs)
Rosenthal: Rigondeaux looked comfortable in his move down to 118 to face Liborio Solis in February, which is a bit surprising at his age (39). And the Cuban boxing wizard was effective once he decided to box instead of brawl in his decision victory. If the Cuban sticks with the ideal game plan – box, box, box – he could give Inoue all kinds of trouble. And unlike in his KO loss to Vasiliy Lomachenko, Rigo wouldn’t be at a size disadvantage. This one comes down to the wire and ends in a shocking draw.
Frauenheim: Ten years ago, this would have been great fight. Rigondeaux will be 40 on Sept. 30, according to his bio. That’s old at any weight, ancient at a lighter weight. Rigondeaux is skilled enough to last. But that’s the problem. Inoue, 26, will wear him out late, scoring a unanimous decision.
Nam: If Rigondeaux decides to play spoilsport, he could conceivably win a decision. But given that his reflexes aren’t what they used to be and that in his most recent outings he has resorted to fighting inside the pocket, it’s hard to feel confident in that prediction. Rigondeaux will slip and slide his way to the final bell, but expect Inoue to have landed the more telling shots.
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INOUE VS. GONZALEZ (49-2, 41 KOs)
Rosenthal: Gonzalez looked like the juggernaut of old in his ninth-round KO of Kal Yafai at junior bantamweight in February. Still, moving up a division to face a beast like Inoue would be too much to ask for Gonzalez, who seems to be close to his weight ceiling. The Nicaraguan has the ability and experience to hang around for a while but Inoue would gradually wear him down and take him out somewhere around Round 9.
Frauenheim: There’s reason for weight classes. Gonzalez is back for more at bantamweight. But he’s still not quite the fighter he was at 108, 112 and 115 pounds. He’d have beaten Inoue at one of those weights. But Inoue has grown into a mature bantamweight, and he’ll use the leverage to win a late-round TKO.
Nam: When Gonzalez got knocked out by Srisaket sor Rungvisai, it appeared to spoil a potential fight with Inoue when Inoue was still fighting at 115 pounds. But with the way Gonzalez looked in his stoppage of Kal Yafai, who knows? Still, at 118, this is a bridge too far even for Gonzalez. Inoue will move around and try to land potshots. He proved against Donaire that he has the conditioning to go 12 rounds at a fast pace. Inoue by late stoppage.
INOUE VS. SOR RUNGVISAI (47-5-1, 41)
Rosenthal: Sor Rungvisai had one of the most impressive streaks in boxing in 2017 and 2018, stopping Roman Gonzalez twice and outpointing Juan Francisco Estrada in consecutive fights. He hasn’t done much since, beating two journeymen and then losing a decision to Estrada in their rematch. The ability and the power still lurk, though. If he could carry that power from 115 to 118, he’d have a chance against Inoue. In the end, though, Inoue’s superior skill set wins the day. Inoue by clear decision.
Frauenheim: Other than his Fight of the Year battle with Nonito Donaire, Inoue’s toughest fight could be Rungvisai. He’s strong. Physicality isn’t exactly a word, but Rungvisai defines it. He could hurt Inoue, who has the skill to elude him. He’s athletic enough to move and smart enough to adjust, all enough for Inoue to win a split decision.
Nam: If Sor Rungvisai demonstrates that his cast iron chin can hold up at 118 pounds, he will gave Inoue some trouble. He’ll push the pace and throw left hand haymakers as Inoue tries to maneuver around the ring and land his potshots. Without the skillset to match Inoue’s, Sor Rungvisai will end up taking a lot of punishment. Inoue by decision.
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THE FINAL TALLY
Naoya Inoue: 14-0-1 (5 KOs)
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THE STANDINGS
Canelo Alvarez: 15-0 (6 KOs)
Naoya Inoue: 14-0-1 (5 KOs)
Vassiliy Lomachenko: 14-0-1 (4 KOs)
Terence Crawford: 14-1 (3 KOs)
Read more:
Who wins? Vassiliy Lomachenko vs. five potential opponents
Who wins? Terence Crawford vs. five potential opponents
Who wins? Canelo Alvarez vs. five potential opponents