Who will claim the fourth spot in the College Football Playoff?

ESPN’s Bill Connelly attempted to break down the battle for the No. 4 spot and that battle starts with the UF-UGA game in Jacksonville.

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This season of college football is shaping up to be unlike any other. With the Pac 12 and Big Ten delaying their seasons likely until at least later in the fall, it seems that the race for the College Football Playoff will likely be narrowed down to a field of just the SEC, ACC and Big 12.

What could that mean for this postseason?

It almost certainly means one conference will land two teams in the playoff, but it could also mean a pathway for a Group of Five team, possibly the AAC champion, or a mid-tier Power Five program.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly attempted to break down the battle for the No. 4 spot, and according to Connelly, that battle starts with the Florida-Georgia game in Jacksonville.

1. and 2. Georgia and Florida

Preseason rankings (among fall teams only): Georgia No. 3 (AP, SP+); Florida No. 6 (AP), No. 4 (SP+)

Likely losses (games SP+ projects as a loss by more than 7.5 points): None

Relative toss-ups (games projected within 7.5 points): For Georgia, it’s Oct. 3 vs. Auburn (projected margin of +5.9), Oct. 17 at Alabama (-5.2), Nov. 7 vs. Florida (+1.1). For Florida, it’s Oct. 10 at Texas A&M (+3.0), Oct. 17 vs. LSU (+6.4) and Nov. 7 vs. Georgia.

I can talk myself into chaos all I want, but chaos will require both Georgia and Florida to drop a close game or two in the regular season, then maybe get handled pretty well by Alabama in the conference title game. If the Dawgs or Gators roll to 10-0 or maybe 9-1, this exercise is mostly moot.

(We’ll talk more about these two below.)

Connelly believes the battle for the SEC East comes down to how big a role continuity will play in a season filled with uncertainty. Though the Bulldogs have certainly out recruited Florida in recent years, the Gators return nearly the entire coaching staff and their starting quarterback.

Georgia on the other hand has a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken and was already going to have a new starting quarterback in Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman.

However, Newman opted out of the season, and now UGA’s hopes likely rest on USC transfer JT Daniels. Connelly thinks UF’s continuity from last season could give it the edge.

Florida, meanwhile, has third-year head coach Dan Mullen, third-year defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, third-year offensive co-coordinators John Hevesy and Billy Gonzales, second-year starting quarterback Kyle Trask, six offensive linemen with 87 career starts and a defense that is projected as the second best among fall football teams.

Georgia’s best players are probably better than Florida’s, but if continuity means more, does that push the Gators ahead?

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