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The tallest wide receiver on the Rams roster is Josh Reynolds, who’s 6-foot-3 and a slender 196 pounds. His frame doesn’t exactly scream “jump-ball specialist,” nor is he all that physical at the catch point.
Cooper Kupp is 6-foot-2, with Robert Woods an even 6 feet and rookie Van Jefferson 6-1. Clearly, the Rams lack height and leaping ability in their receiving corps, which can create challenges in the red zone.
They don’t have a Dez Bryant-type who can go up and win jump balls. They don’t have a DeAndre Hopkins, whose hands are as sticky as glue, even on contested catches.
The Rams’ shorter wideouts haven’t caused any problems inside the 20-yard line, as they’ve been one of the most efficient red-zone teams in the league lately. Last season, they scored touchdowns on 64.4% of their red-zone trips, which was sixth in the NFL.
The departure of Brandin Cooks won’t hurt that number, but Todd Gurley’s release could lead to some struggles when the Rams get close to the end zone. According to Pro Football Focus, Gurley had the fourth-best touchdown rate on carries inside the 5-yard line last year, scoring 53% of the time.
Best TD rate on carries inside-the-five last season
1. Derrick Henry – 64%
2. Aaron Jones – 59%
3. Ezekiel Elliott – 56%
4. Todd Gurley – 53% pic.twitter.com/H2s1SyOg25— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 8, 2020
So with Gurley gone and the Rams lacking a true red-zone threat, who will step up? The most obvious answer is Kupp.
He’s not the biggest receiver around, but his route running allows him to get open for Jared Goff. And as difficult as it is to shake loose in the close quarters of the red zone, Kupp finds ways to do exactly that.
And when Goff throws him the ball in the end zone, more often than not, it’ll go for six. Kupp was far and away the best receiver on end-zone targets last year, scoring a touchdown on 83% of such plays – 12% higher than any other receiver.
Best TD rate on end-zone targets last season (WRs)
1. Cooper Kupp – 83%
2. Calvin Ridley – 71%
3. Marvin Jones Jr. – 67%
3. Michael Thomas – 67%
5. Julio Jones – 63% pic.twitter.com/8xB2Fx8ZLX— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 9, 2020
On his 18 targets in the red zone last year, Kupp caught 13 passes for seven touchdowns – an impressive catch rate of 72.2%, which ranked 15th among all players with at least 10 red-zone targets. Inside the 10-yard line, Kupp caught 8-of-10 targets for six touchdowns – tied for the most scores of any player.
His target share of 28.6% inside the 10-yard line was tops on the Rams and ranked sixth in the NFL. For comparison, Tyler Higbee was second on the team at 25.7%, while Cooks was targeted on just 14.3% of Goff’s passes inside the 10. Surprisingly, Woods was even further down the list, tied with Gerald Everett at 11.4%. That’s partly why Woods only had two touchdowns last year.
Will we see a similar target share next season? Or will someone overtake Kupp? It’s likely Kupp will remain No. 1, but expect Higbee’s share to stay relatively high.
He’s the third-tallest player on the team at 6-foot-6 and his catch radius is large. His hands aren’t the most reliable, but if he can simply box out defenders and give Goff a nice target, he can rack up the touchdowns in 2020.
Goff and the pass-catchers will need to step up in the red zone next season with Gurley out of the picture. Sure, Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown could prove effective near the goal line, but Gurley had a nose for the end zone.
If the Rams throw the ball more often inside the 20, expect Kupp and Higbee to be the ones getting the bulk of the targets.