A week after the release of the preseason USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, the Associated Press will release its preseason top 25 for the 2023 college football season. And once again, Penn State should be considered a virtual lock for a top 10 ranking from the AP voters.
Penn State finished the 2022 season ranked no. 7 in the final AP Top 25 of the season. It matched the highest final ranking for the Nittany Lions under James Franklin with a No. 7 at the end of the 2016 season. With as much talent as Penn State returns this season and with the offseason hype generated about the team heading into what could be a promising season, there is no reason to expect Penn State not to have a top-10 ranking. But just how high might the Nittany Lions be ranked when the preseason poll is released?
Let’s start at the top, where the two-time defending national champions from Georgia are guaranteed to be the top team in the poll with a majority of the first-place votes. Michigan, coming off back-to-back Big Ten titles and College Football Playoff appearances, will likely be the second team in the rankings. Georgia and Micigan went 1-2 in the coaches poll last week.
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The next two teams to expect to see in the preseason AP poll will be Ohio State and Alabama, and you can flip the order however you feel for the third and fourth spots in the ranking. And it may not be a shock if either of those two teams make it to the second spot in the ranking. But however the top four shakes out, it will likely be some combination of Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, and Alabama. Penn State won’t sniff a top-four ranking in the preseason poll.
After the top four, things may be a bit more up in the air for filling out the top 10. Penn State could be a team worthy of a preseason no. 5 ranking, but LSU and USC are two teams in particular that may benefit from their 2022 performance to stay ahead of the Nittany Lions, just as they do in the preseason coaches poll. LSU brings back a solid roster this season a year after dethroning Alabama in the SEC West. USC was a win away from a spot in the College Football Playoff with a Heisman Trophy winner in Caleb Williams back for more this season.
It will not be a shock if AP voters go with LSU and USC ahead of Penn State. So the ceiling for Penn State will likely fall between no. 5 and no. 7. But is there a chance a team from the ACC could get ahead of Penn State in the preseason poll?
Florida State has been the trendy team to talk about in the ACC this season as the Seminoles gear up for what they hope is a return to the top of the conference this fall. Clemson is still right in the mix as well, however. Both Florida State and Clemson could have a chance to come in ahead of Penn State in the preseason polls, but it is probably unlikely both will do so. Penn State will probably still come in ahead of each, but one or the other being ranked ahead of them would not be a shocking development. Florida State would probably be the more likely option to do so if you go off the preseason hype about the Noles.
Texas has widely been considered the team to beat in the Big 12 this season, their final year in the conference before moving to the SEC in 2024. But the Longhorns may still be a reach to be ranked ahead of Penn State in the preseason AP Top 25. Expect the Longhorns to crack the top 10 but to do so behind Penn State.
My guess? Penn State will be no. 8 in the AP top 25 poll. The top four teams are locked in no matter how you shuffle the second through fourth spots behind Georgia with Michigan, Ohio State, and Alabama. I think LSU and USC each stay ahead of Penn State, and I think the Florida State hype nudges the Noles just past Penn State for the no. 7 spot.
No matter what the AP Top 25 or USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll say, Penn State is looking to be a team on the College Football Playoff radar until proven otherwise. The preseason rankings will back up that suggestion. And in just under three weeks, we will begin seeing if Penn State can live up to the hype on the field.
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