When we get into a bubble conversation, we need to be precise about the meaning and value of various games. USC and Washington State entered Friday night’s game on the bubble, but that’s not precise enough. It’s more specific to say that USC and Wazzu were both on the good side of the bubble. They were both narrowly inside the cut line for inclusion in the 2023 Women’s NCAA Tournament.
Sometimes, two bubble teams are in the middle of the bubble. Sometimes, two bubble teams are on the bad side — or low end — of the bubble. Each instance is unique.
With USC and Washington State both being on the good side of the bubble, it was more a case of the winner gaining value from the result, not the loser taking a huge and very damaging hit.
No, the loser isn’t undamaged by the result. Washington State does lose a certain degree of leverage in all of this. However, it’s much more the case that USC benefits as the 51-44 winner of the game. WSU still has tons of chances to impress the selection committee. USC probably gained one seed line and thereby improved its place on the seed list by at least three or four positions.
We talked to Washington State expert Jeff Nusser for his view — from the Cougars’ perspective — on what this bubble game is likely to mean:
“I’m still not sure I totally understand the selection criteria for the women’s tournament, which seems to be a little more mysterious than the men’s side,” Nusser told us. “The one thing I think I’ve learned over the past two years is that the committee really loves to see a team show that it can beat quality opponents, and both WSU (at No. 12 NET Oregon) and USC (vs. No. 4 NET Stanford) have done that. Beyond that, neither team has any majorly puzzling losses. As long both take care of business down the stretch in the way you described, I’d assume both get in.
“I guess it’s possible that this game could be meaningful as a separation point if both are on the bubble, but I don’t think this one, all alone, has much of an impact. Maybe if one team wins big – particularly if that one team is USC – it makes a difference, but I don’t think so. They’ll play each other again at the end of the year in Los Angeles, and there’s a lot of hoop between now and then.”
That’s a really good point: USC hosts the Washington schools to end the regular season in late February, just before the Pac-12 Tournament in early March. We’ll see where the Trojans and Washington State are when they arrive at that rematch.
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