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Wild-card weekend is almost upon us, and the New Orleans Saints will host the Minnesota Vikings in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday in the playoffs’ opening round. Currently, the Saints are a 7.5-point home favorite over the Kirk Cousins-led Vikings.

Money lines won’t tell the entire story in this matchup. A deeper dive into rankings of key stats throughout the season is necessary to unpack it. We will take a look at differentials for points and turnovers, rushing yards per game, and third-down conversion percentages between the two teams.

Point differential

Saints +117; Viking +104

Point differential is often a better indicator of team performance than overall record. Teams stuck with a lower point differential, but having still maintained a solid overall record, can be considered “lucky” by winning incredibly close games that could have gone either way at the end (looking at you, Seattle Seahawks).

New Orleans unsurprisingly holds the fifth-best point differential in the NFL, and the second-best in the NFC. However, Minnesota, whose offense is regularly criticized, holds the seventh best point differential in the NFL and fourth best in the NFC.

The Saints defense will have to play one of their best games in order to stop a sneakily good Vikings offense, that will be headlined by running back Dalvin Cook who will be returning from injury.

Turnover differential

Saints +15; Vikings +11

Turnover differential calculates how well a team takes care of the ball on offense, while also taking into account how many turnovers that same team creates on defense. It is an important stat that helps determine how many opportunities each team can create (or destroy) for itself.

New Orleans’ offense set the NFL record for fewest turnovers in a season with only eight in the 2019 regular season. Meanwhile, its defense helped create 23 turnovers, which ranked 14th in the league. Minnesota was not far behind with the fifth best turnover differential in the league.

Once again, Minnesota has quietly proven it can take care of the ball on offense, while still forcing errors on opposing defenses. The Saints will have to rely on a strong running game, and quarterback Drew Brees’ accuracy in order to prolong drives and reduce mistakes that the Vikings will try to capitalize on.

Rushing yards per game

Saints 108.6 yards; Vikings 133.3 yards

We finally arrive at a stat that the Vikings clearly outrank the Saints. Cook has led the Vikings in rushing yards with 1,135 yards in only 14 games this season. Cook has led the way for the Vikings to achieve the sixth best rushing game in the NFL.

Meanwhile, New Orleans ranks 16th in the league in rushing, but their star running back Alvin Kamara has missed significant time with injury this season. Kamara has begun to look more like himself the last two weeks of the regular season, and could be a large factor in the wild-card game.

Finally, the Saints defense has not given up a 100-yard rusher in 42 straight games. If New Orleans can hold Cook to less than 100-yards, then it will limit play-action opportunities and force Cousins to make quicker decisions, which should bode well for the Saints. The Vikings defense is competent at stopping the run (108.0 rushing yards allowed per game), but they don’t have the consistency of the Saints defense (91.3 rushing yards allowed per game).

Third-down conversion rate

Saints 42.2%; Vikings 42.8%

Third down conversion rates are important when looking at how well teams are able to keep the drive alive. However, it is not the end-all, be-all since first- and second-down conversions are just as important in helping to sustain successful drives. That being said, good teams keep themselves alive on third down by dialing up the right play and converting.

For as efficient as the Saints offense has been all season, the Vikings have been even more so, on third downs at least. The two teams’ third-down conversion rate is almost identical, and this stat may be what both of their defensive game plans will focus on. Whichever sides’ defense can get off the field quickly and more often will hold the advantage.

It’s important to contrast these conversion rates on offense against what the other team is allowing on defense. While the Saints are slightly worse on third down when they have the ball (at 42.2%), they’ve got the Vikings beat on defense (34.8%). Minnesota’s third-down defense, usually a point of pride for coach Mike Zimmer, is substantially worse at getting off the field on third down (39.7%). If the Saints defense can create many third-down opportunities, they should win that matchup against Cousins and the Vikings offense, while Zimmer’s defense should struggle against Brees and the Saints.

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