The College Football Playoff expansion in 2024 has Penn State in its best position yet under James Franklin to make the playoff. Despite the new format, the Nittany Lions still must face a new and improved Big Ten while transitioning to a new offense under new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.
Most power rankings have Penn State firmly in the top 12 teams, and Pro Football Focus’s latest rankings are no different. They ranked the Nittany Lions eighth overall, just behind ACC powerhouse Florida State and ahead of new Big Ten addition Washington. They are the fourth-ranked Big Ten school, with Oregon (sixth), Ohio State (fourth), and Michigan (third) all beating them out.
PFF’s rankings are unique in that they were created by simulating the season over 10,000 times using data pulled from point spreads and strength of schedule. Penn State came in with a strength of schedule of seventh, which is somehow only fifth hardest in the Big Ten. That is a great example of how stacked the conference has become with the new additions from the now-defunct Pac-12.
Despite their high ranking, PFF only has the Nittany Lions’ projected win total at 8.1, tied for 20th in their rankings. That is likely due to how difficult they project their schedule to be, but eight wins obviously won’t be enough for a playoff berth. To be fair, no team ended up with a projected win total above 10 (Georgia was closest at 9.9), so that isn’t an indictment on Penn State.
For Penn State to live up to this ranking, they will need to take care of business against all of their opponents aside from Ohio State, the only team on their schedule that they are likely to be an underdog against. Before this season, beating Ohio State was a requirement if they wanted to compete for the playoffs. With 12 spots up for grabs now, finishing as the eighth-best team like PFF projects will be good enough to be in the mix for a national title.