The Green Bay Packers’ opportunity to lay claim to the top spot in the NFC came and went on Sunday night in San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers jumped out to a 23-0 halftime lead and eventually slammed the door shut on a 37-8 victory at Levi’s Stadium, giving Kyle Shanahan’s team a 10-1 record and the No. 1 seed in the conference after 12 weeks.
The loss dropped the Packers to 8-3 and prevented Matt LaFleur’s team from becoming the fourth different team in the NFC with nine wins.
Where do the Packers settle in the standings after the defeat?
First, the good news: the Packers still lead the NFC North with five games to go, thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Minnesota Vikings, who were on the bye in Week 12.
NFC North standings:
1. Packers (8-3, 3-0 vs. division)
2. Vikings (8-3, 1-2 vs. division)
3. Bears (5-6, 2-1 vs. division)
4. Lions (3-7-1, 0-3 vs. division)
The Packers play the two-win New York Giants and two-win Washington Redskins the next two weeks before embarking on a three-game gauntlet against the NFC North to finish the season. It’s entirely possible the Packers will be 10-3 going into a Week 15 matchup with the Bears at Lambeau Field. The Vikings are at Seattle next week.
Now, the bad news: The Packers are no longer one of the top two seeds in the NFC. The loss dropped them down one spot to No. 3, behind the 49ers and New Orleans Saints, who survived a scare from the Carolina Panthers earlier Sunday.
NFC standings:
1. 49ers (10-1, next: at Ravens)
2. Saints (9-2, next: at Falcons)
3. Packers (8-3, next: at Giants)
4. Cowboys (6-5, next: vs. Bills)
5. Seahawks (9-2, next: vs. Vikings)
6. Vikings (8-3, next: at Seahawks)
7. Rams (6-4, next: at Cardinals)*
8. Bears (5-6, next: at Lions)
9. Eagles (5-6, next: at Dolphins)
10. Panthers (5-6, next: at Redskins)
*Play Monday night vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Packers play their final five games of the season against the NFC, including four games against teams with losing records. However, three of the games are on the road, including a pivotal game in Minnesota on Dec. 23.
The NFC playoff picture has sharpened some as of late, with five teams with at least eight wins. The Cowboys and Eagles may need all 17 weeks to decide the NFC East, but the other five teams currently possessing playoff spots are on solid footing as of right now. The Rams, at 6-4 going into Monday night, could change that.
The Packers need to take care of business the next two weeks.
Remaining schedule:
at Giants (2-9)
vs. Redskins (2-9)
vs. Bears (5-6)
at Vikings (8-3)
at Lions (3-7-1)
Combined record: 20-34-1
Even accounting for Sunday night’s loss, the Packers have a 92-93 percent chance of making the postseason and a 67 percent chance of winning the division, according to the New York Times’ playoff predictor.
In the vast majority of simulations, the Packers either secure a first-round bye (roughly 33 percent) or host a wild-card game (36 percent). The team’s most likely record is 12-4 (37 percent).
The Packers will likely be favored in four of the final five games. If they win all four, they’ll finish 12-4 and likely hold off the Vikings in the NFC North.
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