LSU’s College Football Playoff hopes took a hit with the Week 9 loss to Texas A&M. A win would have put the Tigers’ in the SEC title driver seat and in control of their playoff destiny.
Now, the picture is muddy.
Let’s start with the obvious: LSU needs to win out. The SEC and Big Ten are getting crowded at the top and the path for a 9-3 team to slip in is shrinking.
Four games remain on the schedule following the bye week. LSU will host Alabama before taking a trip to Florida. LSU ends the year with back-to-back home games against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.
Alabama presents the toughest challenge and the way LSU defended A&M QB Marcel Reed doesn’t inspire much confidence in LSU to stop the threat of Jalen Milroe.
Milroe’s legs won’t catch LSU by surprise, and the Tigers have two weeks to figure something out.
If LSU can pull out a win over the Tide, the remaining schedule is manageable.
That’s where LSU needs help. In this scenario, Alabama is 9-3 with a loss to LSU. That knocks the Tide out of the picture.
Ole Miss is another two-loss SEC team hanging around, but a loss to Georgia essentially knocks the Rebels out of the picture.
LSU will have a hard time climbing back in front of Texas A&M, so at this point, LSU should root for A&M to win out. That would leave Texas at 10-2 and out of the SEC title. A 10-2 LSU would have a comparable resume to a 10-2 Texas.
In an ideal world, Georgia and A&M square off in the SEC title. One gets the automatic bid and the other gets the at-large bid. Tennessee picks up another loss in this scenario, and LSU is the SEC’s third or fourth-ranked team when the regular season concludes.
Now we turn our attention to the Big Ten. Between Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana, the Big Ten will get three to four teams in the field. LSU needs it to be three, which means Indiana drops a couple of games.
The Hoosiers are at Michigan State this week, followed by contests against Michigan and Ohio State. Their year concludes with a meeting vs. Purdue. With the way Indiana is playing, its hard to see two losses there, but its possible.
FPI still gives LSU a 21% chance to make the playoff, so the Tigers aren’t dead yet.
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