The Miami Dolphins have just two weeks left of rooting actively against the Houston Texans, ending a two-year tradition born in Miami’s blockbuster deal to send OT Laremy Tunsil to Houston in August of 2019. With draft assets on the way to Miami again this season, Miami is set to cash in on a down year from Houston in a big way. But where could this pick land? And where will it actually clock in?
We took a look to find out.
The Ceiling
Don’t look now but this pick could clock in at No. 3 overall in the order when things are all said and done. The Dolphins will be the world’s biggest Cincinnati Bengals fans next weekend as the Texans clash with Cincinnati. The Bengals shocked Pittsburgh by 10 in Week 15, so they’ll be coming off their best game of the season thus far. How do the Dolphins finish with the No. 3 overall pick?
- A Bengals win over Houston in Week 16
- A Texans loss in Week 17 to Tennessee
- A Carolina win over the final two weeks (@ Washington and vs. New Orleans)
- A Falcons win over the final two weeks (@ Kansas City and @ Tampa Bay)
If those four things materialize, the Dolphins will own the 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 3 overall pick.
The Floor
As exciting as the ceiling is for this pick, the floor is somewhat terrifying when you consider how many teams there are closely bunched together in the standings. Houston’s pick could finish as high as 3rd-overall, yes. But it could also clock in as low as 15-overall depending on the outcomes through the final two weeks. Should Miami fans expect that pick to drop so late in the first round? No, absolutely not. Some bizarre outcomes would have to happen for that to materialize. But never the less, it is mathematically possible.
Expected Outcome
After taking a look at the remaining games on the schedule, we’ll bet on the Texans to split their final two games with Cincinnati and Tennessee. That will axe that top-3 overall dream, but that was something of a pipe dream regardless. In picking every game left to be played this season, we’re forecasting the Dolphins’ first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to clock in No. 7 in the draft order courtesy of a 5-11 Houston Texans team.