What’s the outlook for Alex Anzalone and his forearm fracture?

Breaking down the medical outlook at prognosis for return for Lions LB Alex Anzalone after he broke his arm in Week 11

Alex Anzalone injured his left forearm on November 17, 2024, late in the 2nd quarter vs the Jaguars.

Diagnosis

Dan Campbell confirmed a left forearm fracture postgame. The forearm comprises two bones – radius and ulna. Either or both could have been broken.

Mechanism

Anzalone’s left forearm was forcibly trapped between 2 players. Being trapped created a leverage point causing the bone(s) to break.

Prognosis

Anzalone will likely have surgery using plate and screws to fix the bone(s) with an initial estimated recovery of 6-8 weeks as relayed by Dan Campbell. The bone(s) should be fully healed in that 6-8 week timeframe.

Long-term outlook

The forearm bones heal reliably well and there is unlikely to be any damage to the elbow or wrist joints based on the video. There is a small chance that the metal hardware can cause chronic pain and may need to be removed down the road. Overall, there are no long-term concerns for his arm or his level of play.

When can we expect a return to the field?

Anzalone will almost certainly be back for the playoffs with a good chance of being available for the final 1-2 regular season games. A six-week timeline would have him play in the second-to-last regular season game on Monday Night Football, December 30, vs the 49ers. The final regular season game is January 5 vs the Vikings.

Returning earlier than six weeks is a realistic possibility also. In 2023, Dallas Goedert of the Eagles had a similar-looking forearm fracture and returned in five weeks with a protective brace. An extreme example is Thomas Davis in 2016 who returned in two weeks for the Super Bowl wearing a 3D-printed brace. Players will push the envelope for the Super Bowl which is something we may see later with Aidan Hutchinson.

Returning before the bone is fully healed carries an increased risk of re-injury. This may have happened with Rob Gronkowski in 2013 when he returned in six weeks from a forearm fracture only to fracture it again two weeks later.

For the Lions, the priority is to have Anzalone healthy for the playoffs, so I expect them to play it safe and have him return around the 6-8 week mark when the bone is fully healed.

As with all injuries, return to play depends on factors beyond health including game importance, player importance, and quality of backups. If the playoff seedings are already locked in, Anzalone might see some extra time off.

Impact on team

The Lions will certainly miss this starting linebacker on the field. He is the fastest defender among the front seven with good coverage ability and the speed to contain mobile QB’s.

While Anzalone’s injury will hurt the team now, it may actually help the team later. As Anzalone expressed on X, a silver lining of an arm injury is that he will come back with “fresh legs”.

When he returns, the forearm may not be as strong, but the rest of his body will be healthier, stronger, and faster than it is now. Anzalone’s injury will weaken the team over the next few weeks, but will likely strengthen the team during the playoffs.