The Detroit Lions are in the midst of a ridiculous season.
By now, most people understand the impact on the team from all the injuries the Lions have sustained. On Monday, several more season-ending injuries to key players were announced. But injuries are not my focus right now. Instead, I want to talk about the NFC North race.
Currently, the Lions are in first place with a record of 12-2 with three games left on their regular-season schedule. The Minnesota Vikings are also sitting at 12-2 after their victory in their Monday night matchup against the Chicago Bears, just behind Detroit by means of the Lions’ victory against them in week seven. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers are third in the division with a record of 10-4.
So, what is significant about this?
This morning, my son and I discussed other teams that have already locked up their respective divisions, namely the Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) and the Buffalo Bills (11-3). That made me think: How often would a twelve-win season have been good enough to win the NFCN? The answer is interesting.
I went back as far as 1967 on NFL.com and found that five times since then, teams in Detroit’s division finished in second place with a record of 11-5. The Lions did it in 2014, the Vikings in 1988, the Bears in 1991, and the Packers did it twice, in 1998 and 2009.
Only once did it happen. The Packers placed second in 2001 with a record of 12-4. That’s it. Every other second-place team in every single year since at least 1967 in the Lion’s division has posted ten or fewer wins. As a side note, the Lions placed second and missed the playoffs in their first year in Detroit (1934) with a record of 12-3 after starting 12-0.
Why is that important?
As of now, each team in the division has three games left to play. The Vikings are still set to play both the Packers and the Lions. If Green Bay wins their final three games, the Vikings beat the Seattle Seahawks next week but lose to both the Packers and Lions, the NFC North will have—not two, but three teams with at least thirteen wins!
Think back before the season. It does not matter which team you root for in this exercise: If you had imagined your team would finish the regular season with a record of 13-4, my guess is that—should that come to pass—you would find yourself to be deliriously happy. That is because most preseason projections considered any NFCN team reaching thirteen wins to be wildly optimistic.
For example, on September 23rd, BETMGM placed the Lions over/under win total at 10.5 games after they won twelve in 2023 and advanced to the NFC Championship game. The Packers’ O/U was set at 9.5, the Bears at 8.5, and the Vikings a mere 6.5 wins. For a small slice of satisfaction, you now know that the Bears have already achieved their “Under” total for this season.
Now imagine achieving thirteen wins and coming in third place in your division!
As I mentioned above, a team has only managed to secure second place in the division with twelve wins one time since 1967. Since then, thirteen wins have always been good enough to be the division champion. But not this year. Not yet, anyway. It will be captivating to watch this race play out.
Thanks to special contributor Bruce Walker for the research and write-up!