What we learned, NFL Week 12: The Rams are unraveling, the Patriots are not, and Cam Newton …eesh.

The Rams are frauds and so is the Steelers’ defense.

The Los Angeles Rams officially have to worry.

Los Angeles is roughly as all-in as an NFL team can be. It has a quarterback making more than $20 million and six other veteran playmakers set for cap hits of at least $14 million for 2022. It has no first round draft picks through 2024 and won’t make a selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, barring a trade, in the top 96 picks.

This combination of limited cap room, stockpile of big contracts, and dearth of draft picks puts a pretty defined window on the Rams’ title hopes. If they can’t win with this group, there are very few ways to make meaningful personnel improvements.

And this is a group that will leave November without a single win.

Los Angeles won on Halloween, then dropped three straight games — the latest coming in Green Bay after a Week 11 bye. A once 7-1 club is now 7-4 and staring up at the 9-2 Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West race.

While there have been issues across the lineup, the Rams’ biggest problem boils down to one thing in 2021: Matthew Stafford plays big in small games and small in big games. Here’s what he’s done against teams that have .500 records or worse:

And here are his numbers against teams with winning records through Week 12:

Stafford throws more, and throws worse, when faced with good teams. His passer rating drops by 30 full points in these games. He gets sacked more often and loses more yards on those sacks. He throws interceptions roughly twice as much.

There’s a significant variance in his deep game as well. Against teams that are .500 or worse, Stafford has completed 61.8 of his passes that travel 10+ yards downfield (42 of 68) and 46.2 percent of the passes that go 20+ yards (12 of 26). Against winning teams, those numbers drop to 42.9 percent (30 of 70) and 30.4 (seven of 23). Depending on the opponent, he can go from prime Aaron Rodgers to a guy completing fewer deep balls than 2021 Daniel Jones.

This is a problem! The defense has been mostly as advertised, but lost by a dozen to the Titans on a night where Tennessee gained fewer than 200 total yards of offense. It held the 49ers to 335 yards and lost by 21. On Sunday the Rams outgained the Pack 5.8 yards per play to 5.1 and it made no difference because Stafford was underwhelming and LA turned the ball over three times, leading to 17 Green Bay points.

The Rams have the personnel to win the Super Bowl and a quarterback who can’t shake the lingering residue of the Lions from his soul. Stafford’s big west coast debut has fizzled, leaving him a box score hero against weak competition and an ineffective trebuchet launching pumpkins into space against good teams.

If he can’t get his head right and find some semblance of consistency in the home stretch, he and the Rams could continue their 2019-20 trajectory as a winning team who doesn’t truly scare anyone.