Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada has suffered a violent fall from grace and is looking to turn things around in a hurry. To do that, the university went with Jeff Choate who is coming to Reno from Austin, moving on from his post as a co-defensive coordinator and inside linebackers coach of the Longhorns.
The Wolf Pack had four winning seasons in a row in Jay Norvell’s five years at the helm. In the two years since, the team posted back-to-back 2-10 seasons.
If Nevada isn’t careful it could end up with a winless season, although that should be avoided just by having Jeff Choate on the sidelines. The question, then, becomes how much can the team improve.
Choate has a worthy resume and is well acquainted with the West, but there is only so much you can do in year one. After the past two seasons, bowl eligibility might seem worlds away, but the Pack could get back to bowling within a few years. This year is more about rebuilding that foundation and it can be limiting in terms of short-term success. At this stage of the rebuild, Nevada doesn’t have too much potential and probably ends up around 0-13 or 2-11.
New Mexico Lobos
When it was time for the Lobos to hire a new coach, they called a familiar but unexpected name. By way of the University of New Mexico, Bronco Mendenhall is making his return to the Mountain West. Mendenhall is no stranger to the conference. In fact, with 56 wins, he is eighth on the all-time leaderboard, right between Kyle Wittingham with 58 and Fisher DeBerry with 49.
He has seen success at what you might call untraditional programs and the Lobos hope he can continue that for them. Recruiting to Albuquerque couldn’t be more different than to Provo, Utah or Charlottesville, Virginia and he’ll be dealing with a very different situation in terms of resources, but on the gridiron, football is football. He is a proven talent on defense and had a brief but successful run at New Mexico earlier in his career.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, the bright spot of the 4-8 campaign last season is gone, along with most of the team’s production on both sides of the ball. That might be all the better for Mendenhall who has a pretty blank slate to install his unique, but apparently effective system.
Rocky Long left UNM after the 2008 season and the Lobos have only played two bowl games since then. Bronco is a program builder and certainly seems like he could get the Lobos back in the postseason, but not right away.
This will be as pure a rebuilding year as they come. If there’s a bright future in Albuquerque, it’s hidden behind a year with a pretty low ceiling. The Lobos will probably end up somewhere between 0-12 and 2-10.
San Diego State Aztecs
It’s pretty unclear what San Diego State will look like this year other than different. Rocky Long and Brady Hoke could aptly, maybe even exclusively, be described as “defense guys.” They were quite good at it too.
The Aztecs made quite the name for themselves excelling on defense. In the 15 years with two Brady Hoke tenures broken up by a Rocky Long tenure, they went to 12 bowls, missing only Hoke’s first, last, and the abbreviated 2020 season.
Sean Lewis represents a pretty big departure from this pattern. The former tight end was most recently the offensive coordinator for one season at Colorado and before that was the head coach at Kent State.
Freshman Danny O’Neil won the starting job in a crowded QB room and should have a revamped offense to work with. If the defense can keep up with what it’s been doing and Sean Lewis can get his offense where he wants it to be, the Aztecs could be competitive sooner rather than later.
The Aztecs are in an interesting position, caught somewhere between a well-established program and a team in the midst of a rebuild. Anything between 3-9 and 9-3 is possible. They probably find themselves on the wrong side of .500 landing within a game of 4-8.
San Jose State Spartans
San Jose is a tough place to win. Brent Brennan did so and was rewarded with a 17.5 million dollar contract at Arizona. Before notching winning seasons in each of the last two, the last time the Spartans strung together back-to-back winning seasons was in 1986 and 1987.
San Jose State didn’t take Brennan’s departure lying down and took a chance on the former coach of the Navy Midshipmen, Ken Niumatalolo.
Niumatalolo is tested and proven, though his last winning season came in 2019. Navy is certainly a unique institution in the world of college sports and the same could be said of San Jose State, to a lesser degree. The Spartans are hoping he can figure it out in Silicon Valley just like he did in Annapolis.
Dealing with the departures of 2023 All-Mountain West First team selections Chevan Cordeiro and Kairee Robinson, the roster is a bit uncertain. Defensive lineman Soane Toia earned preseason all-conference honors but was the only Spartan to do so.
Niumatalolo is an interesting hire and it could pay off for the Spartans. Unfortunately, that probably won’t happen in his first year. The challenges are just too steep and a rebuild this comprehensive doesn’t happen that quickly. For now, the Spartans are probably looking at a season that ends somewhere between 0-12 and 4-8.
UNLV Rebels
Barry Odom’s debut performance was nothing short of spectacular. His Rebels went 9-5 with wins over Vanderbilt, Wyoming, and Air Force. During the regular season, they only lost to Michigan, Fresno State, and San Jose State. They fell to Boise State in the Mountain West championship game and to Kansas in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
From 5-7 in 2022 to the conference title game in 2023 is quite the first impression for Odom. Now it’s time to see where his team does in year two. Building on that momentum could carry the Rebels through a championship game and potentially into the playoffs. On the other hand, the team could take a step back and slump into the middle of the pack.
If Ricky White III and Jacob De Jesus have anything to say about it, it will be the first option. White is a standout receiver and was named to the Preseason All-conference Team and De Jesus was named the Mountain West preseason special teams Player of the Year for his punt and kick returns, but doubles as a wide receiver.
UNLV’s schedule holds a wide range of possibilities. The Rebels could go undefeated, although it would mean winning a rematch against a very, very good Kansas team. They could also go 6-6. Somewhere around 9-3 is more likely.
Utah State Aggies
Utah State’s offseason has taken every plot twist imaginable and then some. When Blake Anderson was suddenly released, the 33-year-old Nate Dreiliing took over. Dreiling was gearing up for his first year as the defensive coordinator for the Aggies but will end up serving as the interim head coach, defensive coordinator, and defensive ends coach. Anderson was the head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterbacks coach so it left a crater in the staff when he was fired. Kyle Cefalo was elevated to offensive coordinator and Cooper Bassett was elevated to co-offensive coordinator. Bobby McMillen was elevated to co-defensive coordinator while retaining his position as inside linebackers coach. Additionally, Troy Morrell was brought in as associate head coach and senior offensive analyst.
In the wake of all the coaching changes, the Aggies stayed very intact on the field. The only notable loss was Micah Davis who transferred to Ole Miss.
The offense will be led by Spencer Petras, a transfer from Iowa. His main weapon will be Jalen Royals, a proven star receiver. He will also be able to rely on experienced backs like Robert Briggs Jr. and Rahsul Faison. Engineered by a brain trust of Cefalo, Bassett, and Morrell, the offense should be able to maintain its status, if not improve.
On defense, Dreiling will still be able to fix the problems he was able to fix. Too often, this defense has looked like an overly-talented group of kids running around without a plan. The under-coached unit should take a massive step forward, putting the team in a good place, despite the offseason shake-up. On the field, star safety Ike Larsen will return to help lift a defense that was unreliable last season. The likes of linebacker Max Alford who is back after missing last season with an injury and tackle Gabriel Iniguez Jr. who transferred in from New Mexico State will add some skill and depth to the defense.
This season is nothing if not uncertain for the Aggies, but the team was given an extraordinarily tough situation and has bought in and made the best of it so far. The Aggies could finish anywhere from 4-8 to 8-4.
Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming could be on the cusp of an incredible ride.
The Cowboy defense should look like a Cowboy defense, and if it does, that side of the ball should be set. On offense, Wyoming doesn’t have quite the same track record. Harrison Waylee should put at least some of the concern to rest. Along with Malik Sherrod of Fresno State, Waylee is the type of player who would be in the conversation for the conference’s top running back if it weren’t for the long shadow cast by Jeanty.
Another weapon on offense is tight end John Michael Gyllenborg. Last season, he averaged 16.6 yards per catch and scored three touchdowns on 19 receptions. The Cowboys should also have a strong line led by Jack Walsh.
Within the first three weeks of their season, the Cowboys have a chance to steal two power conference wins in Arizona State and BYU. Arguably their biggest game of the year will be played on terms quite favorable to the Pokes. In what could be a clash between two teams without a conference loss, Wyoming will welcome the Broncos to Laramie on November 23rd. This game very well could decide, or even preview, the Mountain West title game.
With a characteristically stout defense and a solid offense led by a strong running game, the Cowboys could finish the season anywhere from 9-3 or 12-0.