While college football is king at USC, college basketball might be the next revenue sport we get to see in the Pac-12. We don’t know this for a fact, but with no Pac-12 sports being held for the rest of 2020, there’s at least a decent chance that basketball will return before football.
When one considers how a bubble setup for college basketball — which has been discussed on multiple occasions here at Trojans Wire — might affect team performance, one has to look at the NBA bubble for information. You can bet that while the NBA bubble should not be seen as a guaranteed indicator of what college basketball might look like in a bubble, Andy Enfield and other coaches around the country are studying the patterns and details emerging from Orlando.
This tweet began a discussion of bubble basketball:
This is fun basketball so far but if a 57 point game and 22 made threes in both games are any indication, seems like players play better without fans. Which is good I guess, but also…..um….*?
— myles brown (@mdotbrown) August 17, 2020
This tweet, in response to the above tweet, continued the discussion:
Same court and rims every game is a huge deal. Also no travel. Also less distractions.
— #Him™ with the #s 🇵🇷 (@AmericanNumbers) August 17, 2020
What might a 2021 Pac-12 basketball season look like for USC? There is an obvious positive spin and an equally obvious negative spin to apply to any speculation about Trojan basketball in a pandemic, if we get to see it.
Let’s start with the negative spin to get it out of the way first: The bad possibility potentially awaiting the Trojans is that their defense-first identity as a team under Enfield — who badly needs a better “offensive coordinator” to improve USC’s offensive efficiency — will cause them to get outscored by opponents with better pure scorers. Given the high scoring in the NBA bubble, a product of nonexistent travel and, more centrally, shooters getting very familiar with the rims and background in the same buildings used for games, USC could be outgunned by teams with more natural scorers. If bubble basketball becomes an offense-first kind of game, USC might get caught with insufficient offensive weaponry.
The good scenario is that USC’s strong defensive habits will give the Trojans a leg up on most of the Pac-12. USC was able to clamp down on opponents last year. UCLA was a red-hot team going into the regular-season finale, but USC had defensive answers for the Bruins every step of the way. UCLA will be better this coming season, but USC doesn’t figure to fall off the map. If USC can carry its defensive identity into next season, and if a strong point guard can emerge who will take care of the ball in late-game situations, the lack of fans in a bubble could make USC noticeably less vulnerable to pressure. The Trojans — who would have been a much higher NCAA Tournament seed last season had they protected the ball in a few road games (Oregon, Arizona State) — could take the extra step needed to become a high NCAA seed. They were probably headed for a No. 9 seed. Maybe their ceiling in 2021 could be a No. 6 seed.
These are some preliminary thoughts about NBA bubble basketball and how it might relate to USC hoops in 2021. Hopefully these speculative musings will get to be tested in the coming winter or spring.