What the Green Bay Packers can expect from Jordan Love’s first NFL start

Here’s what the game film says about Jordan Love’s starting debut.

Aaron Rodgers won’t play for the Green Bay Packers in Week 9 thanks to a positive COVID-19 test. Third-string quarterback Kurt Benkert will miss the game for the same reason.

That means 2020 first round pick Jordan Love, the man who drove a wedge between Rodgers and the only franchise he’s ever played for, will be the Packers’ quarterback against the Kansas City Chiefs — and possibly longer. Love, the former Utah State standout, will make his first NFL start in place of the reigning league MVP against last year’s AFC champions.

And despite all that, it may be a comfortable landing spot for him. While debuting in front of a raucous Arrowhead Stadium crowd isn’t ideal, the Chiefs’ defense is woeful. If Davante Adams returns to the lineup, Love’s gameplan may just read “throw to #17 whenever Daniel Sorensen is near him.”

We hardly know what Love can bring to a regular season NFL game. Last season, kneeldowns and garbage time snaps fell to Tim Boyle, a quarterback whose college stats and NFL career truly do not line up. He’s played 18 snaps this year. All seven of his pass attempts came in Week 1’s blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints. Let’s see what we can learn from them — and from his performance in the 2021 preseason.

What Love’s limited NFL experience says about his chances vs. the Chiefs

Rodgers’ absence has sunk this team in the past. Green Bay went 2-4-1 without him in 2013, getting little help from Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, and Seneca Wallace as the Packers missed the postseason. The club sputtered to a 4-6 record amid his absence in 2017 with Brett Hundley handling QB1 duties.

Love has more raw talent than any of those players. The question is whether he can apply it in a meaningful situation. Here’s what he was able to do when he entered a 38-3 game against the Saints with a little under 11 minutes to play. He was mostly relegated to handoff duty (10 runs vs. eight dropbacks), but still managed to showcase solid instincts and bad habits in limited reps.

Here’s his first completion as a pro: He patiently waits out a three-man rush, steps to his left, and delivers an on target — but not perfect — strike to Amari Rodgers, who outran linebacker Zach Baun and the Saints’ zone coverage:

Three plays later, he looked beyond the sticks on third-and-long again. This time he identifies single coverage downfield and makes a pretty catchable throw to Malik Taylor. Taylor has to jut inside to get to the ball, but gets caught up hand fighting with Marshon Lattimore and can’t get there. It’s Love’s first incompletion, but it’s a good one: Adams or Allen Lazard likely get to that ball, and the inside shoulder throw is where it needs to be to prevent Lattimore from making a sideline interception:

Love gets his big play one dropback later, though it was more a function of the Saints breaking down than anything. Randall Cobb slices through a soft zone and is open enough that it doesn’t matter Love is bouncing off his back heel when he floats this one downfield. It goes for 32 yards and remains his longest completion to date:

It’s a big play, but it’s concerning. New Orleans rushed four guys and none of them got especially close to Love. There’s room for him to step up in the pocket and deliver a dart here. Instead, he sticks where he’s dropped back and heaves a ball downfield. It’s ultimately the right decision, but it suggests pressure is going to be a problem.

That skittishness reared its head on what turned out to be Green Bay’s final offensive snap of the day. Love has more than three seconds to pass here but can’t find anyone in a compressed red zone. He attempts to step up in the pocket, but instead runs directly into Tanoh Kpassagnon for a strip sack that put a merciful end to a hideous game:

In order to better understand what he’ll look like while following head coach Matt LaFleur’s game-opening script, let’s rollback to his preseason debut against the Buffalo Bills.

The Packers lost that game, 19-0, but it was an exhibition so who cares? What’s more important is Green Bay’s approach, which was built on a steady diet of runs up the middle and short passes in hopes of freeing up space downfield. We only get three snaps into the day before Love’s back-foot floater makes an appearance:

Again, the second-year QB faces limited pressure but still resorts to throwing without his feet set. And again it works, but in a situation that only vaguely resembles a meaningful football game. This comes up much less often when his first target is open and he doesn’t have to progress through his read. Here’s a third-and-long where Taylor has an advantageous matchup and Love immediately decides he’s the guy:

That’s good! If Love’s top option is open, he follows through on his confidence in the pocket and delivers the kind of big-armed strikes expected of a former first-round pick.

That’s something that can work when your primary target is one of the best receivers in the game. The Chiefs’ path to success will rely on redirecting his gaze from Davante Adams and forcing him to process in the middle of a crowded pocket. They’ll also get a boost in the red zone; Love completed just 1 of 5 passes from inside the Buffalo 22-yard line in August with zero touchdowns and only seven net yards. That included this logical conclusion to his back-foot throws under pressure:

What have we learned? Love is going to struggle with pressure and blitz situations. Obvious passing downs are going to be a problem in a meaningful game; the Saints gave him time to throw on third-and-long because they were up by 35 and just wanted to go home. The Chiefs, 4-4 and in desperate need of a win, will not be as generous.

Expect Matt LaFleur to dial up a run-heavy offense early that features short burst passes designed to free up Adams near the line of scrimmage. Establishing a relationship between Love and his WR1 — who don’t appear to have played regular season or preseason snap together — will be paramount to building the young quarterback’s confidence and limiting the amount of the back foot throws that float toward the Kansas City secondary.

Those runs and short throws will lend credence to the play-action passing that’s already been a steady part of Love’s aerial attack as a Packer. Keeping the Chiefs at bay by diverting their blitzes will be huge, but manageable. Kansas City has fewer sacks this season than anyone but the Atlanta Falcons and only 35 quarterback hits in eight games. If David Bahktiari returns to clean up the blind side, it would be an enormous boost for an offense in need of one.

In summary, the Chiefs know they can force Love into bad situations with pressure and can negate his first option by slowing down Adams. But Kansas City, ranked 31st in both rush and passing defense, lacks the personnel to make that happen consistently. There are going to be opportunities for the second-year quarterback to shine.

Love’s promotion has already swung the Packers from a +1 road underdog to +7.5, per Tipico, following news of Rodgers’ absence. While there’s certainly going to be a dropoff from the reigning MVP to a guy making his first NFL start, he still gets to face an impotent Kansas City defense. Love should be fine Sunday afternoon — as long as he doesn’t give in to his worst instincts and jitterbug his way to floated back foot passes in Missouri.

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