The Chicago Bears have an important decision to make at quarterback this offseason, one that could define the franchise’s future for the next decade — stick with Justin Fields or start over with a top rookie talent.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler and Courtney Cronin did a deep dive into the two different scenarios facing the Bears this offseason, which included talking to league executives about both choices.
If the Bears trade the first overall pick they could get a significant haul — greater than last year’s trade for the top selection, which included wide receiver DJ Moore, two first-round picks (which became Darnell Wright and this year’s No. 1 pick) and two second rounders (which became Tyrique Stevenson and a 2025 second-rounder).
If the Bears traded the first pick, the return could be immense. Several executives agree Chicago could net more than it did in the Panthers trade, and from a prospective trade partner already picking in the top five. Those execs believe the price to get to No. 1 could be two future first-rounders on top of this year’s pick, along with a variation of a Day 2 pick and/or a premium veteran player on a manageable contract.
If the Bears trade Fields, they could get a draft pick as high as a second rounder, which takes into account recent quarterback trades.
The consensus in an informal poll of league evaluators is that Fields would be worth a second- or third-round pick in a pre-draft trade. When compared to former top-10 picks recently traded, that’s better than Trey Lance, whom Dallas acquired from San Francisco for a fourth-round pick, but slightly worse than Sam Darnold, who, along with a sixth-round pick, went from the Jets to Carolina in exchange for second- and fourth-rounders.
If the Bears decide to trade Fields, an anonymous AFC executive believes the Atlanta Falcons would be a good fit for Fields, and they’re certainly in the market for a quarterback.
Poles, who’s expected to be retained, ultimately has to decide whether Fields or a top rookie like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye can lead the Bears to a championship. But there are other contributing factors at work, including locker room chemistry.
Bears veterans have made it clear they want Fields back in 2024. If Poles were to trade Fields, like he has other veterans like Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn, it could be detrimental to locker room morale.
Then there’s the fact that Poles could acquire significant draft capital in another trade of the top selection (as mentioned above) to continue building a team that has made huge strides in the final stretch of this season, including Fields.