For a second consecutive off-season, we have a team at the top of the draft board in a position to grab a top QB prospect a year after having drafted one. In 2019, it was the Cardinals, who owned the top pick with Kyler Murray on the board a year after taking Josh Rosen in the first round. This year it’s the Redskins, who own the second-overall pick and seem to have first dibs on Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, which is starting to make things awkward for the team’s incumbent Quarterback of the Future, Dwayne Haskins.
Arizona, of course, went ahead and took Murray before dealing Josh Rosen for a second-round pick, a genius move in hindsight as Murray went on to win offensive rookie of the year while Rosen was beaten out (twice) by Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami.
Naturally, people in NFL media, including Mel Kiper Jr., are starting to wonder if the Redskins should follow the Cardinals’ lead and draft Tua despite having a young, first-round quarterback already on the roster.
There is no easy answer here, but it’s a good “problem” to have. The Redskins have options and all of them are pretty good. Let’s rank ’em…
1. Trade down
I could honestly be swayed either way, but this would be my top choice. Of course, it all depends on how you feel about Tua as a prospect. There are plenty of people whose opinions I respect that believe he is a top-end prospect. I’ve only watched a handful of his 2019 games on tape and I’m not there. There aren’t a lot of special plays that convince me he’s worth 180-degree shift in the direction of a franchise. While I think Tua will develop into a solid starting quarterback (if healthy, which is a big ‘if’), his ceiling is not much higher than that. This may have been due to the fact that I had just got done watching all of Teddy Bridgewater’s 2019 dropbacks before studying Tua’s game, but he reminds me a lot of the Saints’ backup, in that he’s a quick processor who will turn down too many opportunities downfield. Both are fairly accurate, but neither is Drew Brees in that regard. With a good supporting cast, Tua might produce like a top-10 quarterback. Without one, he’d be just another guy.
I also had some time to watch a couple of Haskins’ games from this past season. His starts against the Giants and Eagles in December got me excited for his future. His arm talent is clearly superior to Tua’s and, while he may not get through his progressions as quickly as the former Alabama star does, he has no problems reading a defense. His ball placement really stood out to me during those two games. Now, Haskins isn’t the most accurate quarterback, but he’s capable of throwing into tight windows and typically does a good job of placing the ball where it needs to be. Here are a few examples from his final start of the season…
I’m not completely sold on Haskins as a future star, but I think he’s got just as a good a chance to develop into that kind of player as Tua does. So here’s why I think it’s smartest to trade down: Washington would pick up more draft capital while still being in a position to grab a top prospect in the first round. And if Haskins shows no signs of progress in Year 2, that likely means the Redskins will be right back at the top of the draft next year and will have another chance to draft a top QB prospect — and maybe this one won’t be coming off a serious hip injury. Who knows? Maybe with the extra draft capital they picked up in the trade down, they can put together a package that allows them to trade up for Trevor Lawrence if need be.
2. Draft Tua and let him compete with Dwayne Haskins
This might be the riskiest of the Redskins’ options but it’s a creative way to go about finding a franchise quarterback — and a method that more teams should try. I don’t need to tell you how important finding a top-of-the-line starting quarterback is in today’s NFL. For teams looking to rebuild, the quickest way to do so is by finding a good quarterback.
Obviously, the problem is finding one. It’s hard. The NFL quarterbacks we already know are good aren’t available, which leaves the draft as the only viable avenue to find a legit franchise quarterback. Unfortunately, none of us — not even the people who are paid to evaluate them — are any good at figuring out which college quarterbacks will be stars. If we look at draft success as blind luck — and we probably should — the best approach to finding a star QB in the draft is probably to just keep drafting quarterbacks until you know you’ve found one.
So here’s a handy flowchart for NFL teams looking for a QB…
There’s risk involved, obviously. What if both Tua and Haskins stink it up and tank their trade values? Or what if Tua ends up losing the job to Haskins, which would tank his trade value? Then Washington would have passed on ‘can’t-miss’ prospects like Chase Young or Jeffery Okudah or any of the billion blue-chip wide receivers available in this draft for no reason at all.
The team would be mocked and ridiculed, so … well, not much would change. Maybe this plan isn’t risky after all.
3. Keep the pick and draft one of the Ohio State players
Look, Chase Young is awesome. You can watch him play for like 30 seconds and realize he’s going to be a star pass rusher. But (1) the Redskins already have a decent pass rush, so they’d just be strengthening a strength, and (2) he’s not going to solve all of the other team’s problems … and they have a lot of them. If Washington has its heart set on keeping the pick and building around Haskins, Okudah would be a smarter pick as he’d help shore up the team’s awful secondary, which, in turn, would get more out of a talented defensive front.
Whether it’s trading down or drafting a quarterback for the second consecutive year — which has happened only three times since the merger — the Redskins need to get creative between now and the 2020 NFL draft. Either draft Tua or trade out of the second-overall pick. Any other decision would be a mistake.
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