The Miami Dolphins are facing yet another offseason in 2021 without significant amounts of outgoing free agents. But, unlike in 2020, the Dolphins will have a few priority players that they will need to decide how to handle — there will be more difficult conversations to be had than what Miami had to deal with this past year. Key among Miami’s expiring talents is linebacker Raekwon McMillan, who is a standout in the run game and a booming presence between the tackles.
McMillan will be an interesting case study in valuation, as the Dolphins worked hard in 2019 to avoid putting McMillan in situations where he’d be exposed in coverage — which is a greater courtesy than what former head coach Adam Gase was willing to afford the former Ohio State Buckeye defender. But that work to keep McMillan out of coverage resulted in a steep drop off in snaps — and a repeat performance in 2020 could see McMillan’s free agent value diminish if he’s perceived not to be a three down linebacker.
Quite frankly, he shouldn’t be. Because yes — if McMillan was on the field for 90% of the snaps, he’d be able to challenge the NFL’s tackle leaders. But his individual stats for the sake of the benefit of the team is certainly not going to be a status quo direction for Coach Brian Flores.
The best case scenario for McMillan is to continue to play a specific role in Miami’s defense — the plug in the middle. But that role flies directly into the face of McMillan’s production and as a byproduct, his potential cash figure for his second contract. Former Green Bay Packer and now New York Giant Blake Martinez is a great example. Martinez is well known for a strong trigger against the run (although he does miss tackles at a frustrating rate at times) and is, like McMillan, not a great asset against the pass. He’s played 99% of the Packers’ snaps the past two seasons, logged 299 total tackles and 15 tackles for loss over the last two seasons in Green Bay. But he’s also been targeted 135 times, given up nearly 1,000 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns (opposing quarterbacks have a rating > 100.0 in each of the last two years targeting him in coverage).
But that didn’t stop the Giants from giving Martinez a 3-year, $30M contract this offseason with $19M in guarantees. McMillan won’t command that much if the Dolphins keep him playing to his strengths — but that in turn will make McMillan more valuable to the Dolphins; both as an economic value and for eliminating his liability reps against the pass.
The Dolphins can point to the contract of Patriots LB Dont’a Hightower for inspiration and for valuation. His annual average salary is in excess of $8.5M per season and he’s played somewhere between 50-70% of the Patriots snaps each season. With a strong season in 2020, McMillan could position himself for that kind of valuation. But if his snap count lingers around 50% once more (it was 46% in 2019) to keep him best positioned for success, the Dolphins should be able to lop a million or so off than annual average salary and be able to strike a deal.