What seeding NBA playoffs from 1 to 16 would mean for Rockets

ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said Monday that he expects the NBA to pitch the idea of seeding teams in the 2020 playoffs from 1 through 16.

If the 2020 NBA playoffs are held by the usual format, Houston (40-24) is currently slated as the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference playoffs and ticketed for a first-round matchup with No. 3 Denver (43-22). The Rockets and Nuggets split their four regular-season meetings.

But given the multi-month layoff late in the season due to COVID-19, the 2020 playoffs will be anything but business as usual. For starters, it appears they will be held at a single league site in Orlando and without fans, as part of an extensive safety plan to reduce virus risks. This takes away the usual perk of home-court advantage for higher-seeded teams.

Considering the unique circumstances, the league might also attempt to make other changes. On Monday, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reiterated that NBA Commisioner Adam Silver has “long wanted” to seed its playoff teams independent of conference affiliation from No. 1 through No. 16, and this year could be an ideal opportunity to try it out.

Both the East and West would still have their same eight playoff teams, but each would be seeded solely by winning percentage and could face teams from the other conference throughout the playoffs.

One usual drawback to that plan is logistics. Historically, the NBA Finals is the only round where an East Coast team could play a West Coast team in the playoffs and travel back and forth throughout the series. If seeded independent of conference, this could lead to multiple rounds of that.

But with all 16 playoff teams housed at one complex in Orlando this year, that concern would no longer be applicable.

For such a format change to take place, at least 20 of the 30 team owners need to approve it. That won’t be easy, since some teams might see their playoff chances as harmed by the change. But Windhorst says he expects Silver to try, and a conference call is scheduled with owners for Friday.

As far as the Rockets are concerned, here are three key takeaways on what the hypothetical change would mean, assuming the NBA sticks with its usual policy of not reseeding after each round of the playoffs.

(It’s not yet clear whether the league wants to advance straight to the postseason or play some regular-season games beforehand, which could shake up those standings. But for purposes of this exercise, let’s go with the hypothetical of win percentages staying where they are today.)

1.) The Rockets would play Utah (41-23), rather than Denver, in the first round. This is probably a preferable scenario for a few reasons. While the Rockets and Nuggets split their four meetings, Houston took two of three against the Jazz, and the lone loss was on a Bojan Bogdanovic buzzer-beater after the Rockets had led in the final second.

Two of the three Rockets-Jazz games came after Houston’s switch to a smaller lineup, giving them confidence in how a matchup might look. By contrast, the Rockets did not play Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets after trading Clint Capela. Houston also has the comfort of having defeated the Jazz, four games to one, in each of the past two NBA playoffs, with Eric Gordon faring well defensively against Utah’s Donovan Mitchell.

Finally, Bogdanovic — who is Utah’s No. 2 scorer — is now out for the season with a wrist injury. Given those factors, drawing the Jazz instead of Denver in the first round would seem to be a break for Houston.

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2.) Assuming no major upsets, Houston would be bracketed to face the Los Angeles Lakers, rather than the Clippers, in the second round. On paper, the Lakers (49-14) have been superior to the Clippers (44-20) this season. But while the sample is limited, it’s worth noting that the smaller Rockets had more success against the former than the latter.

On Feb. 6, the Rockets beat LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the rest of the Lakers by double digits at Staples Center in a game where Russell Westbrook scored 41 points. Then, about one month later on March 5, the Rockets were crushed by Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers in Houston.

Again, the sample is limited. But based on what we know now, the Rockets had an easier time matching up with the larger Lakers and their traditional big men than they did the long and versatile Clippers.

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3.) The Rockets would only have to beat two of the Lakers, Clippers, and Milwaukee Bucks to win the title. Assuming no big upsets, if the playoffs were held by their usual format, the Rockets would likely have to defeat all three of the league’s presumed heavyweights in consecutive best-of-seven series to win the 2020 NBA championship.

Should they advance out of the first round, Houston would currently be slated to face the Clippers in the West semifinals, the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, and the Bucks in the NBA Finals.

By contrast, a 16-team seeded system would put both the Clippers and Bucks (53-12) on the opposite side of the bracket from the Rockets. One of them would have to lose before they’d be able to face Houston.

This also, however, could show the difficulty the NBA faces in getting a format change passed. Why would the Bucks, who have dominated the East all season, vote for a system in which they might have to defeat at least two West heavyweights in playoff series — as opposed to just one?

Milwaukee can’t unilaterally derail talks, since the change could still be approved with up to 10 of the 30 NBA teams voting against it. But if other franchises in the East, which has long had an easier path to the NBA Finals than the West, feel the same way, the “no” votes could stack up quickly.

It’s for many of the same competitive reasons, though, that the Rockets would likely support Silver’s proposal. Time will tell as to how realistic it is, but on paper, the path to a 2020 NBA title gets slightly easier for Houston with the change — especially if the standings stay as they are today.

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