“Playoffs? You kiddin’ me?! Playoffs?”
The infamous Jim Mora line could be especially applicable for the Miami Dolphins given their lack of postseason appearances over the course of the last 20 years (three berths over that stretch and two in the last 19). But that is exactly where we sit with this Dolphins team entering into the 2021 season. Playoffs feel like the expectation for a lot of folks.
Brian Flores may not say it publicly. It flies in the face of the mantra he constantly serves to his team:
One day at a time. One practice at a time. One rep at a time.
But make no mistake: these Miami Dolphins are on the doorstep and the expectation is that the team manages to kick that door down after being left out of the 2020 tournament despite winning 10 games. But don’t just take our word for it: projections for the season have Miami routinely in the mix. The latest release of postseason forecasts comes from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). And the Dolphins are firmly in the mix.
How does FPI rank the Dolphins’ playoff probabilities? Better than a coin toss odds to make the playoffs, for starters. Here are FPI’s postseason odds for Miami:
- Make the playoffs: 54.1% (2nd in AFCE behind Buffalo)
- Win the division: 22.7% (3rd in AFCE behind Buffalo & New England)
- Make the divisional round: 27.7%
- Make the AFC Championship game: 12.2%
- Make the Super Bowl: 5.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.3%
As a point of reference, nearly half of the league has less than a 1% chance to win the Super Bowl according to FPI and Miami has better odds of winning the Super Bowl this year than Carolina, Atlanta, New York (Giants), Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Detroit, New York (Jets) and Houston do collectively combined in the same measure.
So yes. Playoffs. The Dolphins won’t dare discuss it to the world, but we all see the trend building entering Year 3 of the Chris Grier/Brian Flores era. And anything less would be a disappointment.