The story surrounding what the Raiders will do in the upcoming draft begins and ends around getting a quarterback. And which quarterback they get is wholly dependent upon what they are willing to give up to get who they want.
The first step in this is free agency. Last season they tried to use free agency to solve the problem and ended up shelling out over $33 million in guaranteed money for six games of Jimmy Garoppolo.
Should they wish to forego free agency as the solution this time, the next step will be the draft.
They have two options in the draft — trade up to get one of the draft’s top signal callers or sit tight and hope there is someone they like still on the board at 13 overall. And if not, either address another position at 13 or trade down.
Let’s say they do something they have never done and make the aggressive move to jump up for one of the draft’s top quarterbacks. How much might such a move cost them in draft capital?
In this draft, that will likely require the Raiders move up from 13 to at least third overall because the top quarterbacks in this draft are expected to go 1-2-3.
As it happens, to figure out how much it could cost to make that move, there is a pretty spot on blueprint from just three years ago.
Back in 2021, the 49ers traded up from 12 overall to three overall to get Trey Lance. Giving us a solid idea of what it could cost the Raiders to do it.
The thing if, though, that the team with the 12th overall pick in this draft — the Broncos — also need a QB and thus could also be trying to move up. If they offer the Lance deal, the Raiders have to do a bit better than that. So, they may need to bump up that future day two pick.
Raiders get: No. 3 overall pick
Patriots get: No. 13 overall pick, 2025 first and second round picks, 2026 first round pick
Yes, that’s three firsts and a second to move up ten spots at the top of the draft. But it also leaves the Raiders with their full slate of 2024 draft picks to build around their new QB right now.
For the next somewhat similar trade up in the draft, you have to go back to 2018 and what the Bills did to jump up for Josh Allen.
The Bills jumped up twice to get from 21 to No. 7 overall. To do that, they sent the 21st overall pick and former second round pick Cordy Glenn to swap first round picks with Cincinnati and then the 12th overall pick and two second round picks to in that draft to move up to seven.
Ultimately that’s a pick jump of 14 picks, but it was for a pick four spots lower than the Raiders would need to reach, making the draft value actually quite a bit more to make the ten-spot jump the Raiders would look to make. Specifically, it’s a draft value difference of a second round pick. Meaning the trade equivalent would be a first round pick and four second round picks.
Thing is, the Raiders have just one second round pick in this draft. With that in mind, here is what the trade might look like:
Raiders get: No. 3 overall pick
Patriots get: No. 13 overall pick, No. 44 overall pick (Rd 2), 2025 first and second round picks
To review, that’s either three firsts and a second or two firsts and two seconds to move from 13 to three.
These scenarios would likely be to get either LSU’s Jaydon Daniels or North Carolina’s Drake Maye.
But what if the Raiders want Caleb Williams? That would mean a much more aggressive approach. It would mean a jump to first overall. And there’s actually precedence for such a jump.
Nine years ago the Rams jumped up all the way from 15th to first overall. It was the largest jump to the number one pick in NFL history. The Raiders would be a couple spots higher, so it’s not *exactly* the same, but it’s pretty close, especially considering the value being placed on the QB’s in this class.
That trade had the Rams send the No. 15 overall pick and two seconds and one third round pick in the 2016 draft along with a first and third round pick in the 2017 draft.
The closest equivalent might look something like this:
Raiders get: No. 1 overall pick
Bears get: No. 13 overall pick, No. 44 pick (Rd 2), No. 77 pick (Rd 3), 2025 first, second, and third round picks.
It would mean Caleb Williams in exchange for no other picks on days one and two for two years.
Alternatively, you replace next year’s second and third round picks with a 2026 first round pick, making it three firsts and a second and third in this year’s draft. Which seems like a pretty realistic scenario.
Worth it? It could be if it means the Raiders finally get a real franchise quarterback who can make them playoff contenders again.