Jared Goff played well in Week 13, throwing for 351 yards and scoring two touchdowns with a season-high 78.7% completion rate. Jared Goff also didn’t take many chances against the Cardinals and more or less took what the defense gave him.
Both things can be true. And as impressive as Goff’s numbers were this Sunday – especially after his unsightly stat line against the 49ers – he didn’t exactly push the ball downfield or make big plays throwing deep.
A quick glance at his passing chart from Next Gen Stats shows a continued absence of deep shots down the field. Not only is there a glaring void of green dots (completions) 20-plus yards downfield, but there was only one white dot (attempt) 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
It’s hard to ignore the cluster of completions within 10 yards of the line. In fact, only three of his 37 completed passes were at least 10 yards downfield, going 3-for-6 on such throws. Sure, it’s great that he went 34-for-41 on throws under 10 yards downfield, but that’s also not a recipe for creating big plays – even if the Rams do have two of the NFL’s best receivers after the catch.
Looking at the advanced statistics courtesy of Next Gen Stats, Goff’s performance becomes even less impressive. On average, he had 2.6 completed air yards with an average intended air yards of 3.5.
Both numbers are the lowest in the NFL so far in Week 13, with every other quarterback in the league averaging at least 5.2 intended air yards. Goff’s aggressiveness rate, or how often he threw into tight windows, was also the lowest of any quarterback this week at 4.3%.
This has been a trend all season, with Goff taking what the defense gives him by throwing short, easy passes underneath. But in Week 13, throws down the field all but disappeared, which is why his intended air yards dropped precipitously; his season average is 6.6 IAY, fifth-lowest in the NFL.
Goff has the ability to make tight-window throws, and at times, has done just that when necessary. This was arguably his best pass of the game against Arizona, fitting the ball into a very small window to Cooper Kupp.
Here’s another angle of the throw, showing that it was put in a perfect spot where Patrick Peterson couldn’t get to it, even with his great closing speed.
Goff still played well. He didn’t turn the ball over, did a nice job navigating the pocket and hit receivers when he had to. But with a clear absence of deep throws down the field, teams will begin to dare Goff to beat them over the top.
And unless he proves he can do that, the Rams will have to rely on these short passes and yards after the catch to move the ball up and down the field.