Every team has a challenge four-game stretch to their season, and the Houston Texans are no different. In fact, their four-game straits are easy to identify as they occur in the first quarter of the 2020 season.
According to NFL.com’s analytics expert, Cynthia Frelund, the Texans’ have a 37% or less chance to win each of their first four games.
“The Houston Texans’ toughest four-game stretch of the 2020 season comes right out of the gates starting with the season kickoff on Thursday night against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead.
“My model gives Houston a 35.6% chance of winning that game. It does not get any easier for the Texans from there as they return home to host reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the 14-2 Ravens.
“After opening against the last two MVPs, the Texans travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers and a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Houston’s toughest stretch is capped off by hosting the Minnesota Vikings. Starting the season with their toughest stretch puts Houston at a disadvantage considering they will be revamping their offense this season after trading DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona. I project the Texans with less than a 40% chance to win any of these games.
“If Houston can get through this incredibly difficult start where they face three playoff teams from a season ago and a future Hall of Fame quarterback in tact, they will have a chance to win the AFC South for the third straight season.”
Frelund gave the Texans a 36.5% chance at the Chiefs, a 37.1% chance in the home opener against Baltimore, a 36.9% chance at the Steelers, and a 37.0% chance against the Vikings at NRG Stadium.
The games that give Houston a chance to win the AFC South are actually the division games, not the intra- and inter-conference games. In the Bill O’Brien era, a 4-2 division record has been good enough to win them the division two out of three times, and a 5-1 division record has secured the AFC South on two occasions. The non-division games help a division winner’s playoff seeding more than anything else.
The Texans started 2018 1-3 and won the AFC South with an 11-5 record. Houston may start out flat in 2020, but how they respond will tell the tale for the rest of the season.