The Miami Dolphins’ newly acquired running back, Matt Breida, has always been an explosive study. As one of the fastest men in football, Breida brings a big play component to the Dolphins offense that was certainly missing last season — and plenty of production to back up his claim as an upgrade to the Miami Dolphins’ offense. But as a player who has been more of a secondary option to this point in his career, Breida has never had the chance to shine as a featured player in the pros — and that isn’t likely to come in 2020 with the Dolphins, either.
Miami is a team that wants to challenge the opposition and the presence of bell cow back Jordan Howard will make Breida’s touches more selective. But what happens if everything goes right for the Dolphins and the fourth year running back in 2020? How high is the ceiling and what kind of contract could Breida command from the Dolphins in the form of an extension?
If Breida performs at a similar level of explosiveness to what he put on display in San Francisco, Miami can hope for 5.0 yards per carry. To this point in Breida’s career, he’s averaging exactly that on 381 carries (or roughly the workload of one Ricky Williams season under Dave Wannstedt). And while a “best case scenario” for Breida in San Francisco would be above five yards per carry, this is not Kyle Shanahan’s offense and getting equal output per touch from Breida is plenty ambitious.
Remember, this Dolphins team averaged 3.3 yards per carry last season.
And if Breida averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 160 carries (10 per game), you’re looking at 800 rushing yards, which would be near his current career high. Assuming Breida rushed for 800 yards this season, which would likely come at the expense of Jordan Howard, what kind of contract might he command if Miami was pleased with his fit in the locker room and wanted to make him a long-term fixture and not a short-term bridge?
The Tevin Coleman contract seems like a good starting point. Coleman rushed for 800 yards in his fourth season in the pros with the Atlanta Falcons and went on to sign a 2-year, $8.5M contract with the San Francisco 49ers ahead of the 2019 season. Considering Breida is in a similar role in Miami’s backfield and would hypothetically be putting up similar production, a similar contract makes sense. If you take into account inflation, perhaps Breida could command $5M per season — but either way it is a very doable proposition for the Dolphins if Breida blows up this season.