When Bill Belichick talks about an opposing player, especially an opposing quarterback, especially a rookie opposing quarterback, it’s always notable. Obviously, Belichick and his defensive staff will study things at a rate of acuity that even other NFL team’s can’t always match. In his career with the Patriots, which goes back to 2000, Belichick-coached teams are 20-5 against rookie quarterbacks. Only Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, Colt McCoy, Russell Wilson, and Geno Smith have helped to engineer wins as rookies against Belichick.
Coming into that particular crucible on Sunday is Chargers rookie Justin Herbert, who has impressed this season far beyond what most draft analysts (this particular genius included) expected. It is highly unusual for a first-year quarterback to dictate to defenses what they can and can’t do against him, but generally speaking, if you’re playing man coverage against Herbert, and/or you’re pressuring Herbert, you’d better pack a lunch.
This season against man coverage, Herbert has completed 76 of 125 passes for 912 yards, 563 air yards, 10 touchdowns, and one interception. And under pressure regardless of coverage, Herbert has completed 76 of 129 attempts for 1,012 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions. You rarely see quarterbacks this young taking entire concepts out of opposing defensive playbooks.
On Wednesday, Belichick want into great deal about what he finds impressive regarding Herbert, and it was quite expansive.
“He does a good job on the progressions,” Belichick said. “Looks like he’s going to the right place where they want it to go most if not all the time. A lot of the patterns are designed with five receivers out, so it’s a full field read. It looks like he’s going to the right side based on the coverage. If it’s a man pattern on one side and a zone pattern on the other side, that kind of thing, making the right decision on where to go with the ball. His accuracy is good. And then there are a number of plays on a line of scrimmage where you can see him changing the play, or sometimes that will include a formation adjustment, but sometimes he’ll walk under center or be under center and walk back, move the back, change the protection, go through the process and all that.
“They don’t have a lot of penalties – false starts, delay of game and stuff like that. It’s a pretty smooth operation, at least on film, and he executes it well. He does a good job protecting the ball, does a good job executing a variety of plays. I wouldn’t say they have just a simple offense. They do quite a bit, and doesn’t look like they’re restricted at all. So, I think mentally, he’s good. Even though he doesn’t have a lot of experience, he seems to be quite comfortable in what they asked him to do and they seem quite comfortable in giving him quite a bit of responsibility. I mean, that’s the way I read it, I don’t know.”
Regarding Herbert’s ability to read defenses late in the down — a skill some quarterbacks never acquire — per Pro Football Focus, he’s completed 107 passes in 180 attempts with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions on plays in which he has more than 2.5 seconds in the pocket. Only Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have more touchdowns on such plays, and Herbert is tied with Josh Allen for third-best in the league.
What’s the solution? Probably more zone coverage. My Touchdown Wire colleague Mark Schofield had a great piece about the interception Herbert threw against the Bills last Sunday to cornerback Tre’Davious White.
Anatomy of a Play: Tre’Davious White reads Justin Herbert’s mind
Herbert was trying to hit tight end Hunter Henry on a deep crosser against Cover-3 out of a first-read two-deep look, and White read him like a book.
Per Sports Info Solutions, the Patriots have played 94 snaps of Cover-3, allowing 71 completions for 872 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. Herbert versus Belichick could be the Week 13 Matchup of the Week.