The Miami Dolphins have welcomed their players back to Davie for the start of training camp, a process that will look a little different in 2020 than in your standard year of football. That will be a common theme for the Dolphins in general, who are going to be facing a lot of new situations with the team embracing a rebuild and, most importantly, a rookie quarterback.
Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa has officially passed his physical and, according to Dolphins head coach Brian Flores, will face no restrictions when the Dolphins are able to strap on their helmets and crack the pads. That is terrific news for Miami and will create a subplot for this season that Dolphins fans will be watching with a great deal of interest. But what does recent history suggest about what will actually play out in 2020 for the former Alabama quarterback?
Perhaps Tagovailoa becomes the gold standard of rookie quarterbacks. Perhaps Ryan Fitzpatrick plays lights out for 16 games and the Dolphins surprise with a postseason run with their savvy vet. The law of averages indicates that reality will probably be somewhere in between. But here’s what else we can glean from the law of averages:
- 21 of the last 30 (70%) 1st-round quarterbacks (since 2010) have gone on to start 10+ games as rookies. With Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Just Herbert and Jordan Love being the next four on the list, that average is likely to stay on schedule — Burrow will face no competition for the starting gig in Cincinnati and Tagovailoa & Herbert figure to command the starting job sooner rather than later as well.
- Of those 21 1st-round QBs since 2010 to start 10+ games, the average number of touchdowns thrown is 16.3 per quarterback. The high-water mark is Baker Mayfield’s 27 touchdowns (the NFL rookie record) in 2018.
- Of those 21 1st-round QBs since 2010 to start 10+ games, the average number of interceptions thrown is 12.9 per quarterback. The high-water mark is 18, thrown by former Colts QB Andrew Luck in 2012.
- Of those 21 1st-round QBs since 2010 to start 10+ games, the average number of passing yards thrown is 3,057 per quarterback. The high-water mark is 4,374, thrown by former Colts QB Andrew Luck in 2012. Only three rookies surpassed 4,000 yards as rookies — Luck, Cam Newton (2011) and Jameis Winston (2015). All three started 16 games.
- Of those 21 1st-round QBs since 2010 to start 10+ games, the average number of sacks taken is 35.1 per quarterback. The high-water mark is 55, taken by Blake Bortles (Jacksonville, 2014)
- Only one rookie quarterback to start 10+ games over the last decade went on to log a passer rating over 100 — Washington’s Robert Griffin III logged a 102.4 rating in 2012 over the course of 15 games. He passed for 3,200 yards and 20 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions that season. The average passer rating of 1st-round rookies starting 10+ games is 79.5 — although that number is greatly influenced by the abysmal performances of rookies Blaine Gabbert, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Blake Bortles, Christian Ponder and Brandon Weeden. Each threw more interceptions than touchdowns and that group offered a passer rating of 68.7. The remaining 15 quarterbacks boasted an average rating of 86.9.
Tua Tagovailoa will get a chance to win the starting job from the jump. If he doesn’t, it isn’t the end of the world — Patrick Mahomes sat his first 15 NFL games. If he does, look for the numbers to tell a good bit of the story — we would be unwise to expect greatness right away. But history suggests you’ve got to be pretty solid from the jump if you’re going to be a prominent NFL quarterback.