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The Miami Dolphins appear to be reading the room. Miami, in short succession, traded from No. 3 all the way back to No. 12 and then back up to the No. 6 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Along the way, Miami will have netted themselves additional picks in 2022 (3rd-round selection via San Francisco) and 2023 (1st-round selection via San Francisco). Not a bad return for the Dolphins — although getting more value in 2021 would have been a helpful move for a Dolphins team that appears ready to push for contention this year.
But Miami can also look at this situation very simply — and it appears as though their trades today indicate that they do. The quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft are going to come off the board hot and heavy at the top of the order. And with that in mind, Miami cashed out the No. 3 pick overall and moved back to No. 6 for extra 1st- and 3rd-round draft picks to get the same player they likely would consider drafting at No. 3 overall anyway.
Think about it.
The top-3 picks are now going to be quarterbacks. That means Miami, in a worst case scenario, will have their pick of all other positions with the exception of two picks — and the Carolina Panthers may ultimately get a deal done to move up into the top-5 to draft a quarterback anyway.
We could still see four passers off the board in the top-5 overall picks and if the Cincinnati Bengals are committed to upgrading their offensive line at No. 5 overall, then the Dolphins will still have their choice of all of the pass catchers in this year’s class like they would have at No. 3. But they’ll also have a 2022 3rd-round pick and a 2023 2nd-round pick in their back pocket to show for it.
All of this adds up for a net positive win for the Dolphins. Who they ultimately choose at No. 6 overall will be telling, given Miami gave up a 2022 1st-round pick to go back up and get him. But then again, Miami may hear from Carolina in a fit of desperation to get into the strike zone for a quarterback between now and the end of April and prompt another trade back.
After today, you’d be wise to assume you don’t know anything. But what we do know is that the Dolphins feel they’ve got a clear read on the top of the draft order in 2021.